Home / NCAAB Projections NCAAB / Skyhawks @ Chargers STO @ NHVN

STONEHILL

SKYHAWKSSTO

9-18  |  Road

51
FINAL
Thu, Feb 19 • 7:00 PM ET
Jeffery P. Hazell Athletics Center
View Odds Details →

NEW HAVEN

CHARGERSNHVN

11-15  |  Home

64
AI Model Win Probability
SKYHAWKS
100%
📊
CHARGERS
0%
SKYHAWKS --
CHARGERS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
145.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-9.0
NEW HAVEN
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +9.0 points (New Haven)
SkyhawksSTO (-3.5) 0 ChargersNHVN (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Skyhawks Cover

18.4%

Chargers Cover

81.6%

+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around NHVN -9.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (NHVN)

STO By 1-7 points

12.2%

STO By 8-14 points

4.0%

NHVN By 1-7 points

24.3%

NHVN By 8-14 points

26.8%

AI Model Projected Score
68
STONEHILL
77
NEW HAVEN
Simulated Score
75
STONEHILL
78
NEW HAVEN
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Chargers Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Chargers Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Chargers (-2.5) Win
Proj Spread: -9.0
D
Sim Chargers (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -3.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o121.5 Loss
Proj Total: 145.0
D
Sim u121.5 Win
Proj Total: 153.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Feb 19, 2026 STO @ NHVN 51 - 64
Jan 2, 2026 NHVN @ STO 70 - 55
Key Model Drivers
Steals (L5) +35.6% more
New Haven: 7.2 vs Stonehill: 5.3
Assists (L5) +9.0% more
New Haven: 10.8 vs Stonehill: 9.9
Field Goal % (L5) +3.3%
New Haven: 40.6% vs Stonehill: 37.3%
Blocks (L5) +50.5% more
Stonehill: 3.1 vs New Haven: 1.5
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
STO Score 68.0 51
NHVN Score 77.0 64
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 26.6 / 29.0 18.0 / 29.0
Assists 10.8 / 9.9 10.0 / 7.0
Blocks 1.5 / 3.1 6.0 / 3.0
Field Goal % 40.6 / 37.3 43.0 / 35.0
Free Throw % 74.2 / 75.9 75.0 / 45.0
Rebounding 30.4 / 31.5 43.0 / 32.0
Steals 7.2 / 5.3 6.0 / 2.0
Turnovers 10.3 / 13.2 10.0 / 10.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
46%TICKETS54%
11%MONEY89%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
33%TICKETS67%
15%MONEY85%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
67%TICKETS33%
39%MONEY61%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
STO
12-21-0 (36.4%)
Margin: -2.2 ATS +/-: +0.5
NHVN Advantage
14-17-0 (45.2%)
Margin: -1.4 ATS +/-: +1.3
🎯 ATS (Spread)
STO
14-15-2 (48.3%)
Margin: -2.2 ATS +/-: +0.5
NHVN Advantage
15-13-0 (53.6%)
Margin: -1.4 ATS +/-: +1.3
⚖️ Over/Under
STO
11-20-0
O: 35.5% / U: 64.5% Total +/-: -4.0
NHVN
8-20-0
O: 28.6% / U: 71.4% Total +/-: -3.5
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
NHVN
STO
NHVN
STO
ML
71% 22-9
45% 15-18
68% 21-10
70% 23-10
ATS
74% 23-8
39% 13-20
68% 21-10
70% 23-10
TTL
42% 13-18
55% 18-15
100% 31-0
100% 33-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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