Home / NCAAB Projections NCAAB / Eagles @ Panthers MORE @ EIU

MOREHEAD STATE

EAGLESMORE

15-12  |  Road

73
FINAL
Thu, Feb 19 • 8:30 PM ET
Groniger Arena
View Odds Details →

EASTERN ILLINOIS

PANTHERSEIU

11-16  |  Home

70
AI Model Win Probability
EAGLES
0%
📊
PANTHERS
100%
EAGLES --
PANTHERS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
113.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 100%
Under 0 0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
+1.0
EASTERN ILLINOIS
Book Spread
--
Book Line
EaglesMORE (-3.5) 0 PanthersEIU (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Eagles Cover

46.0%

Panthers Cover

54.0%

-30-20-100+10+20+30
Distribution centered around EIU +1.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (EIU)

MORE By 1-7 points

26.2%

MORE By 8-14 points

16.9%

EIU By 1-7 points

24.3%

EIU By 8-14 points

13.7%

AI Model Projected Score
57
MOREHEAD STATE
56
EASTERN ILLINOIS
Simulated Score
75
MOREHEAD STATE
63
EASTERN ILLINOIS
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Eagles Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Eagles Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI Panthers (+1.5) Win
Proj Spread: +1.0
D
Sim Eagles (-0) Win
Proj Spread: -12.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI u137.5 Loss
Proj Total: 113.0
D
Sim u137.5 Win
Proj Total: 138.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Feb 19, 2026 MORE @ EIU 73 - 70
Jan 24, 2026 EIU @ MORE 68 - 73
Feb 22, 2025 EIU @ MORE 67 - 62
Jan 23, 2025 MORE @ EIU 73 - 66
Feb 10, 2024 EIU @ MORE 57 - 69
Key Model Drivers
Blocks (L5) +33.9% more
Morehead State: 3.5 vs Eastern Illinois: 2.3
Turnovers (L5) +11.0% more
Morehead State: 12.0 vs Eastern Illinois: 10.7
Free Throw % (L5) +10.5%
Morehead State: 80.5% vs Eastern Illinois: 70.0%
Field Goal % (L5) +9.0%
Morehead State: 50.3% vs Eastern Illinois: 41.3%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
MORE Score 57.0 73
EIU Score 56.0 70
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 34.8 / 37.2 19.0 / 35.0
Assists 11.2 / 12.2 14.0 / 17.0
Blocks 2.3 / 3.5 5.0 / 1.0
Field Goal % 41.3 / 50.3 44.0 / 53.0
Free Throw % 70.0 / 80.5 93.0 / 74.0
Rebounding 34.8 / 34.8 29.0 / 31.0
Steals 7.3 / 5.5 9.0 / 5.0
Turnovers 10.7 / 12.0 9.0 / 15.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
67%TICKETS33%
84%MONEY16%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
78%TICKETS22%
60%MONEY40%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
71%TICKETS29%
45%MONEY55%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
MORE Advantage
20-13-0 (60.6%)
Margin: 0.5 ATS +/-: +0.7
EIU
13-20-0 (39.4%)
Margin: -3.2 ATS +/-: +0.8
🎯 ATS (Spread)
MORE Advantage
17-13-0 (56.7%)
Margin: 0.5 ATS +/-: +0.7
EIU
15-13-2 (53.6%)
Margin: -3.2 ATS +/-: +0.8
⚖️ Over/Under
MORE
16-14-0
O: 53.3% / U: 46.7% Total +/-: +3.5
EIU
14-16-0
O: 46.7% / U: 53.3% Total +/-: -1.7
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
EIU
MORE
EIU
MORE
ML
56% 18-14
62% 20-12
74% 23-8
68% 21-10
ATS
50% 16-16
59% 19-13
74% 23-8
68% 21-10
TTL
69% 22-10
53% 17-15
100% 31-0
100% 31-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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