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SAMFORD

BULLDOGSSAM

15-12  |  Road

78
FINAL
Thu, Feb 19 • 7:00 PM ET
McAlister Field House
View Odds Details →

THE CITADEL

BULLDOGSCIT

9-18  |  Home

75
AI Model Win Probability
BULLDOGS
100%
📊
BULLDOGS
0%
BULLDOGS --
BULLDOGS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
140.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 100%
Under 0 0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-2.0
THE CITADEL
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +2.0 points (The Citadel)
BulldogsSAM (-3.5) 0 BulldogsCIT (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Bulldogs Cover

42.1%

Bulldogs Cover

57.9%

+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around CIT -2.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (CIT)

SAM By 1-7 points

23.0%

SAM By 8-14 points

12.2%

CIT By 1-7 points

26.8%

CIT By 8-14 points

18.6%

AI Model Projected Score
69
SAMFORD
71
THE CITADEL
Simulated Score
78
SAMFORD
72
THE CITADEL
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Bulldogs Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Bulldogs Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI Bulldogs (+10.5) Win
Proj Spread: -2.0
D
Sim Bulldogs (-0) Win
Proj Spread: -6.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI u143.5 Loss
Proj Total: 140.0
D
Sim u143.5 Win
Proj Total: 150.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Feb 19, 2026 SAM @ CIT 78 - 75
Feb 5, 2026 CIT @ SAM 64 - 78
Feb 1, 2025 SAM @ CIT 83 - 58
Jan 1, 2025 CIT @ SAM 56 - 86
Mar 2, 2024 CIT @ SAM 80 - 92
Key Model Drivers
Steals (L5) +37.4% more
The Citadel: 6.7 vs Samford: 4.9
Turnovers (L5) +9.7% more
The Citadel: 11.2 vs Samford: 10.2
Free Throw % (L5) +7.3%
The Citadel: 80.7% vs Samford: 73.4%
Assists (L5) +37.2% more
Samford: 14.7 vs The Citadel: 9.3
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
SAM Score 69.0 78
CIT Score 71.0 75
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 28.1 / 37.5 38.0 / 38.0
Assists 9.3 / 14.7 11.0 / 15.0
Blocks 2.4 / 2.8 5.0 / 1.0
Field Goal % 37.6 / 49.1 42.0 / 51.0
Free Throw % 80.7 / 73.4 75.0 / 58.0
Rebounding 30.8 / 37.0 31.0 / 44.0
Steals 6.7 / 4.9 8.0 / 3.0
Turnovers 11.2 / 10.2 6.0 / 13.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
97%TICKETS3%
78%MONEY22%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
60%TICKETS40%
48%MONEY52%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
63%TICKETS37%
87%MONEY13%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
SAM Advantage
18-14-0 (56.3%)
Margin: 3.6 ATS +/-: +0.3
CIT
11-22-0 (33.3%)
Margin: -7.2 ATS +/-: -0.2
🎯 ATS (Spread)
SAM Advantage
17-12-1 (58.6%)
Margin: 3.6 ATS +/-: +0.3
CIT
15-15-0 (50.0%)
Margin: -7.2 ATS +/-: -0.2
⚖️ Over/Under
SAM
18-11-1
O: 62.1% / U: 37.9% Total +/-: +2.6
CIT
15-15-0
O: 50.0% / U: 50.0% Total +/-: +2.9
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
CIT
SAM
CIT
SAM
ML
59% 19-13
65% 20-11
62% 20-12
68% 21-10
ATS
62% 20-12
68% 21-10
64% 21-12
68% 21-10
TTL
53% 17-15
35% 11-20
100% 33-0
100% 31-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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