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MEMPHIS

TIGERSMEM

12-13  |  Road

66
FINAL
Thu, Feb 19 • 7:00 PM ET
Yuengling Center
View Odds Details →

SOUTH FLORIDA

BULLSUSF

18-8  |  Home

87
AI Model Win Probability
TIGERS
100%
📊
BULLS
0%
TIGERS --
BULLS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
172.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-8.0
SOUTH FLORIDA
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +8.0 points (South Florida)
TigersMEM (-3.5) 0 BullsUSF (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Tigers Cover

21.2%

Bulls Cover

78.8%

+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around USF -8.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (USF)

MEM By 1-7 points

13.7%

MEM By 8-14 points

4.8%

USF By 1-7 points

25.3%

USF By 8-14 points

26.2%

AI Model Projected Score
82
MEMPHIS
90
SOUTH FLORIDA
Simulated Score
73
MEMPHIS
81
SOUTH FLORIDA
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Bulls Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Bulls Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Bulls (+8.5) Win
Proj Spread: -8.0
D
Sim Bulls (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -8.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o164.5 Loss
Proj Total: 172.0
D
Sim u164.5 Win
Proj Total: 154.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Mar 5, 2026 USF @ MEM 96 - 89
Feb 19, 2026 MEM @ USF 66 - 87
Mar 7, 2025 USF @ MEM 68 - 84
Feb 13, 2025 MEM @ USF 80 - 65
Jan 18, 2024 USF @ MEM 74 - 73
Key Model Drivers
Assists (L5) +25.4% more
South Florida: 14.1 vs Memphis: 11.2
Rebounding (L5) +12.4% more
South Florida: 41.5 vs Memphis: 36.9
3pt Field Goal % (L5) +5.0%
South Florida: 33.5% vs Memphis: 28.5%
Field Goal % (L5) +1.6%
South Florida: 43.9% vs Memphis: 42.2%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
MEM Score 82.0 66
USF Score 90.0 87
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 33.5 / 28.5 30.0 / 38.0
Assists 14.1 / 11.2 15.0 / 14.0
Blocks 3.5 / 3.9 7.0 / 6.0
Field Goal % 43.9 / 42.2 36.0 / 33.0
Free Throw % 68.6 / 79.3 86.0 / 75.0
Rebounding 41.5 / 36.9 52.0 / 39.0
Steals 7.3 / 8.1 6.0 / 3.0
Turnovers 11.5 / 13.2 10.0 / 13.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
10%TICKETS90%
24%MONEY76%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
57%TICKETS43%
41%MONEY59%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
44%TICKETS56%
81%MONEY19%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
MEM
13-19-0 (40.6%)
Margin: -1.5 ATS +/-: -2.9
USF Advantage
25-9-0 (73.5%)
Margin: 11.7 ATS +/-: +1.9
🎯 ATS (Spread)
MEM
14-18-0 (43.8%)
Margin: -1.5 ATS +/-: -2.9
USF Advantage
18-15-0 (54.6%)
Margin: 11.7 ATS +/-: +1.9
⚖️ Over/Under
MEM
16-16-0
O: 50.0% / U: 50.0% Total +/-: -0.8
USF
15-18-0
O: 45.5% / U: 54.6% Total +/-: +1.0
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
USF
MEM
USF
MEM
ML
61% 20-13
62% 20-12
52% 16-15
68% 21-10
ATS
61% 20-13
62% 20-12
52% 16-15
68% 21-10
TTL
52% 17-16
66% 21-11
100% 31-0
100% 31-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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