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LINDENWOOD

LIONSLIN

16-11  |  Road

80
FINAL
Thu, Feb 19 • 8:30 PM ET
Gentry Center
View Odds Details →

TENNESSEE STATE

TIGERSTNST

17-9  |  Home

89
AI Model Win Probability
LIONS
0%
📊
TIGERS
100%
LIONS --
TIGERS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
140.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 100%
Under 0 0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-12.0
LINDENWOOD
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +12.0 points (Lindenwood)
LionsLIN (-3.5) 0 TigersTNST (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Lions Cover

88.5%

Tigers Cover

11.5%

-30-20-100+10+20+30
Distribution centered around LIN -12.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (LIN)

LIN By 1-7 points

20.1%

LIN By 8-14 points

27.2%

TNST By 1-7 points

8.0%

TNST By 8-14 points

2.2%

AI Model Projected Score
76
LINDENWOOD
64
TENNESSEE STATE
Simulated Score
70
LINDENWOOD
75
TENNESSEE STATE
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Lions Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Tigers Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI Lions (-3.5) Loss
Proj Spread: -12.0
D
Sim Tigers (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -5.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI u159.5 Loss
Proj Total: 140.0
D
Sim u159.5 Win
Proj Total: 145.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Feb 19, 2026 LIN @ TNST 80 - 89
Jan 24, 2026 TNST @ LIN 96 - 86
Mar 6, 2025 LIN @ TNST 55 - 69
Feb 8, 2025 LIN @ TNST 76 - 84
Jan 9, 2025 TNST @ LIN 62 - 72
Key Model Drivers
Turnovers (L5) +28.6% more
Lindenwood: 13.3 vs Tennessee State: 9.5
Assists (L5) +11.1% more
Lindenwood: 13.5 vs Tennessee State: 12.0
Field Goal % (L5) +1.9%
Lindenwood: 44.9% vs Tennessee State: 43.0%
Blocks (L5) +34.4% more
Tennessee State: 3.5 vs Lindenwood: 2.6
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
LIN Score 76.0 80
TNST Score 64.0 89
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 33.9 / 28.6 29.0 / 38.0
Assists 12.0 / 13.5 9.0 / 11.0
Blocks 3.5 / 2.6 1.0 / 6.0
Field Goal % 43.0 / 44.9 44.0 / 48.0
Free Throw % 84.2 / 66.7 71.0 / 72.0
Rebounding 34.7 / 34.8 42.0 / 36.0
Steals 7.5 / 7.6 12.0 / 10.0
Turnovers 9.5 / 13.3 12.0 / 19.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
12%TICKETS88%
16%MONEY84%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
32%TICKETS68%
29%MONEY71%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
30%TICKETS70%
36%MONEY64%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
LIN
18-15-0 (54.6%)
Margin: 5.1 ATS +/-: -0.2
TNST Advantage
23-10-0 (69.7%)
Margin: 5.9 ATS +/-: +3.8
🎯 ATS (Spread)
LIN
14-15-1 (48.3%)
Margin: 5.1 ATS +/-: -0.2
TNST Advantage
18-11-1 (62.1%)
Margin: 5.9 ATS +/-: +3.8
⚖️ Over/Under
LIN
17-13-0
O: 56.7% / U: 43.3% Total +/-: -0.8
TNST
14-16-0
O: 46.7% / U: 53.3% Total +/-: +2.3
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
TNST
LIN
TNST
LIN
ML
52% 16-15
47% 15-17
63% 17-10
61% 19-12
ATS
68% 21-10
34% 11-21
64% 18-10
61% 19-12
TTL
52% 16-15
53% 17-15
100% 28-0
100% 31-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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