SOUTH CAROLINA UPSTATE
SPARTANSUPST
11-16 | Road
64
WINTHROP
EAGLESWIN
19-8 | Home
68
AI Model Win Probability
SPARTANS
0%
EAGLES
100%
SPARTANS
--
EAGLES
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
150.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
100%
Under 0
0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-42.0
SOUTH CAROLINA UPSTATE
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +42.0 points (South Carolina Upstate)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
-30-20-100+10+20+30
Distribution centered around UPST -42.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (UPST)
UPST By 1-7 points
0.0%
UPST By 8-14 points
0.3%
WIN By 1-7 points
0.0%
WIN By 8-14 points
0.0%
AI Model Projected Score
South Carolina Upstate
96
SOUTH CAROLINA UPSTATE
Winthrop
54
WINTHROP
Simulated Score
South Carolina Upstate
71
SOUTH CAROLINA UPSTATE
Winthrop
78
WINTHROP
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI
Spartans
Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Eagles
Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI
Spartans (-13)
Loss
Proj Spread: -42.0
D
Sim
Eagles (+0)
Win
Proj Spread: -7.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
u155.0
Win
Proj Total: 150.0
D
Sim
u155.0
Win
Proj Total: 149.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Feb 19, 2026
UPST @ WIN
64 - 68
Jan 10, 2026
WIN @ UPST
71 - 50
Feb 8, 2025
WIN @ UPST
105 - 95
Jan 2, 2025
UPST @ WIN
76 - 95
Feb 24, 2024
UPST @ WIN
74 - 83
Key Model Drivers
Blocks (L5)
+70.6% more
South Carolina Upstate: 5.6
vs
Winthrop: 1.7
Turnovers (L5)
+30.3% more
South Carolina Upstate: 17.0
vs
Winthrop: 11.8
Assists (L5)
+41.9% more
Winthrop: 18.1
vs
South Carolina Upstate: 12.7
Steals (L5)
+26.4% more
Winthrop: 8.5
vs
South Carolina Upstate: 6.7
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
UPST Score
96.0
64
WIN Score
54.0
68
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal %
36.9 / 33.5
30.0 / 23.0
Assists
18.1 / 12.7
13.0 / 7.0
Blocks
1.7 / 5.6
2.0 / 2.0
Field Goal %
44.8 / 43.9
43.0 / 34.0
Free Throw %
77.0 / 64.6
60.0 / 77.0
Rebounding
38.0 / 36.9
45.0 / 33.0
Steals
8.5 / 6.7
6.0 / 9.0
Turnovers
11.8 / 17.0
14.0 / 9.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
UPST
13-19-0
(40.6%)
Margin: 0.6
ATS +/-: -0.6
WIN
Advantage
23-11-0
(67.7%)
Margin: 8.2
ATS +/-: -1.0
🎯 ATS (Spread)
UPST
Advantage
13-16-0
(44.8%)
Margin: 0.6
ATS +/-: -0.6
WIN
12-19-0
(38.7%)
Margin: 8.2
ATS +/-: -1.0
⚖️ Over/Under
UPST
14-15-0
O: 48.3% / U: 51.7%
Total +/-: -3.5
WIN
16-15-0
O: 51.6% / U: 48.4%
Total +/-: +0.3
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
WIN
UPST
WIN
UPST
ML
70%
23-10
61%
19-12
79%
26-7
83%
25-5
ATS
79%
26-7
61%
19-12
79%
26-7
83%
25-5
TTL
58%
19-14
52%
16-15
100%
33-0
100%
30-0
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