CAL STATE NORTHRIDGE
MATADORSCSUN
16-10 | Road
85
UC SANTA BARBARA
GAUCHOSUCSB
17-9 | Home
83
AI Model Win Probability
MATADORS
0%
GAUCHOS
100%
MATADORS
--
GAUCHOS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
173.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
0%
Under 0
100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-9.0
CAL STATE NORTHRIDGE
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +9.0 points (Cal State Northridge)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
-30-20-100+10+20+30
Distribution centered around CSUN -9.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (CSUN)
CSUN By 1-7 points
24.3%
CSUN By 8-14 points
26.8%
UCSB By 1-7 points
12.2%
UCSB By 8-14 points
4.0%
AI Model Projected Score
Cal State Northridge
91
CAL STATE NORTHRIDGE
UC Santa Barbara
82
UC SANTA BARBARA
Simulated Score
Cal State Northridge
68
CAL STATE NORTHRIDGE
UC Santa Barbara
75
UC SANTA BARBARA
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI
Matadors
Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Gauchos
Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI
Matadors (-6.5)
Win
Proj Spread: -9.0
D
Sim
Gauchos (+0)
Loss
Proj Spread: -7.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o156.5
Win
Proj Total: 173.0
D
Sim
u156.5
Win
Proj Total: 143.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Feb 19, 2026
CSUN @ UCSB
85 - 83
Jan 3, 2026
UCSB @ CSUN
65 - 74
Mar 13, 2025
UCSB @ CSUN
78 - 72
Mar 1, 2025
UCSB @ CSUN
77 - 103
Jan 30, 2025
CSUN @ UCSB
78 - 71
Key Model Drivers
Blocks (L5)
+73.0% more
Cal State Northridge: 4.4
vs
UC Santa Barbara: 1.2
Assists (L5)
+31.9% more
Cal State Northridge: 19.3
vs
UC Santa Barbara: 13.1
Steals (L5)
+27.1% more
Cal State Northridge: 7.7
vs
UC Santa Barbara: 5.6
Rebounding (L5)
+17.2% more
Cal State Northridge: 38.8
vs
UC Santa Barbara: 32.1
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
CSUN Score
91.0
85
UCSB Score
82.0
83
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal %
37.9 / 48.5
32.0 / 18.0
Assists
13.1 / 19.3
15.0 / 15.0
Blocks
1.2 / 4.4
5.0 / 4.0
Field Goal %
47.0 / 52.0
34.0 / 39.0
Free Throw %
74.8 / 62.8
81.0 / 67.0
Rebounding
32.1 / 38.8
49.0 / 52.0
Steals
5.6 / 7.7
3.0 / 7.0
Turnovers
11.0 / 12.6
16.0 / 6.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
CSUN
Advantage
20-14-0
(58.8%)
Margin: 1.6
ATS +/-: -0.6
UCSB
18-14-0
(56.3%)
Margin: 4.8
ATS +/-: -1.0
🎯 ATS (Spread)
CSUN
Advantage
14-18-0
(43.8%)
Margin: 1.6
ATS +/-: -0.6
UCSB
13-17-0
(43.3%)
Margin: 4.8
ATS +/-: -1.0
⚖️ Over/Under
CSUN
19-13-0
O: 59.4% / U: 40.6%
Total +/-: +2.4
UCSB
16-14-0
O: 53.3% / U: 46.7%
Total +/-: +3.1
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
UCSB
CSUN
UCSB
CSUN
ML
59%
19-13
58%
19-14
72%
23-9
67%
22-11
ATS
62%
20-12
58%
19-14
72%
23-9
67%
22-11
TTL
47%
15-17
58%
19-14
100%
32-0
100%
33-0
Contextual Game News
