Home / NCAAB Projections NCAAB / Royals @ Lions QUC @ UNA

QUEENS UNIVERSITY

ROYALSQUC

15-12  |  Road

85
FINAL
Wed, Feb 18 • 7:00 PM ET
Flowers Hall
View Odds Details →

NORTH ALABAMA

LIONSUNA

8-17  |  Home

78
AI Model Win Probability
ROYALS
0%
📊
LIONS
100%
ROYALS --
LIONS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
123.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 100%
Under 0 0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-9.0
QUEENS UNIVERSITY
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +9.0 points (Queens University)
RoyalsQUC (-3.5) 0 LionsUNA (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Royals Cover

81.6%

Lions Cover

18.4%

-30-20-100+10+20+30
Distribution centered around QUC -9.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (QUC)

QUC By 1-7 points

24.3%

QUC By 8-14 points

26.8%

UNA By 1-7 points

12.2%

UNA By 8-14 points

4.0%

AI Model Projected Score
66
QUEENS UNIVERSITY
57
NORTH ALABAMA
Simulated Score
70
QUEENS UNIVERSITY
78
NORTH ALABAMA
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Royals Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Lions Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI Royals (+8.5) Win
Proj Spread: -9.0
D
Sim Lions (+0) Loss
Proj Spread: -8.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI u156.5 Loss
Proj Total: 123.0
D
Sim u156.5 Win
Proj Total: 148.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Feb 18, 2026 QUC @ UNA 85 - 78
Jan 21, 2026 UNA @ QUC 62 - 87
Feb 26, 2025 QUC @ UNA 69 - 74
Jan 29, 2025 UNA @ QUC 67 - 75
Jan 27, 2024 QUC @ UNA 84 - 90
Key Model Drivers
Assists (L5) +37.9% more
Queens University: 16.0 vs North Alabama: 9.9
Blocks (L5) +31.6% more
Queens University: 3.8 vs North Alabama: 2.6
Steals (L5) +26.0% more
Queens University: 7.3 vs North Alabama: 5.4
Field Goal % (L5) +6.8%
Queens University: 52.8% vs North Alabama: 46.0%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
QUC Score 66.0 85
UNA Score 57.0 78
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 33.1 / 38.2 44.0 / 48.0
Assists 9.9 / 16.0 10.0 / 15.0
Blocks 2.6 / 3.8 2.0 / 5.0
Field Goal % 46.0 / 52.8 51.0 / 53.0
Free Throw % 68.8 / 71.5 50.0 / 82.0
Rebounding 36.7 / 30.7 33.0 / 27.0
Steals 5.4 / 7.3 5.0 / 6.0
Turnovers 13.1 / 11.8 10.0 / 9.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
96%TICKETS4%
77%MONEY23%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
66%TICKETS34%
53%MONEY47%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
43%TICKETS57%
59%MONEY41%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
QUC Advantage
21-14-0 (60.0%)
Margin: 0.9 ATS +/-: +0.6
UNA
9-21-0 (30.0%)
Margin: -8.2 ATS +/-: -4.3
🎯 ATS (Spread)
QUC Advantage
14-19-1 (42.4%)
Margin: 0.9 ATS +/-: +0.6
UNA
10-17-1 (37.0%)
Margin: -8.2 ATS +/-: -4.3
⚖️ Over/Under
QUC
22-12-0
O: 64.7% / U: 35.3% Total +/-: +5.9
UNA
12-16-0
O: 42.9% / U: 57.1% Total +/-: -0.4
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
UNA
QUC
UNA
QUC
ML
43% 13-17
71% 25-10
57% 16-12
71% 24-10
ATS
60% 18-12
86% 30-5
57% 16-12
71% 24-10
TTL
63% 19-11
47% 16-18-1
100% 28-0
100% 34-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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