AMERICAN UNIVERSITY
EAGLESAMER
14-13 | Road
75
BUCKNELL
BISONBUCK
8-19 | Home
57
AI Model Win Probability
EAGLES
100%
BISON
0%
EAGLES
--
BISON
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
105.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
100%
Under 0
0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-11.0
BUCKNELL
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +11.0 points (Bucknell)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around BUCK -11.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (BUCK)
AMER By 1-7 points
9.3%
AMER By 8-14 points
2.7%
BUCK By 1-7 points
21.6%
BUCK By 8-14 points
27.4%
AI Model Projected Score
American University
47
AMERICAN UNIVERSITY
Bucknell
58
BUCKNELL
Simulated Score
American University
68
AMERICAN UNIVERSITY
Bucknell
72
BUCKNELL
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI
Bison
Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Bison
Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Bison (+3)
Loss
Proj Spread: -11.0
D
Sim
Bison (+0)
Loss
Proj Spread: -4.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
u140.5
Win
Proj Total: 105.0
D
Sim
u140.5
Win
Proj Total: 140.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Feb 18, 2026
AMER @ BUCK
75 - 57
Feb 4, 2026
BUCK @ AMER
60 - 59
Feb 5, 2025
AMER @ BUCK
49 - 71
Jan 11, 2025
BUCK @ AMER
58 - 68
Mar 7, 2024
BUCK @ AMER
80 - 57
Key Model Drivers
Blocks (L5)
+110.4% more
Bucknell: 2.8
vs
American University: 1.4
Steals (L5)
+12.2% more
Bucknell: 7.9
vs
American University: 7.1
Assists (L5)
+10.8% more
Bucknell: 13.9
vs
American University: 12.5
Free Throw % (L5)
+4.5%
Bucknell: 77.7%
vs
American University: 73.2%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
AMER Score
47.0
75
BUCK Score
58.0
57
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal %
27.9 / 32.6
18.0 / 33.0
Assists
13.9 / 12.5
14.0 / 10.0
Blocks
2.8 / 1.4
0.0 / 4.0
Field Goal %
42.0 / 45.8
44.0 / 40.0
Free Throw %
77.7 / 73.2
71.0 / 81.0
Rebounding
28.5 / 29.9
34.0 / 27.0
Steals
7.9 / 7.1
3.0 / 7.0
Turnovers
10.3 / 10.8
15.0 / 7.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
AMER
Advantage
16-16-0
(50.0%)
Margin: 3.3
ATS +/-: -0.3
BUCK
10-23-0
(30.3%)
Margin: -8.9
ATS +/-: -3.9
🎯 ATS (Spread)
AMER
Advantage
16-14-0
(53.3%)
Margin: 3.3
ATS +/-: -0.3
BUCK
14-19-0
(42.4%)
Margin: -8.9
ATS +/-: -3.9
⚖️ Over/Under
AMER
15-15-0
O: 50.0% / U: 50.0%
Total +/-: +1.2
BUCK
13-20-0
O: 39.4% / U: 60.6%
Total +/-: +1.3
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
BUCK
AMER
BUCK
AMER
ML
55%
18-15
62%
20-12
64%
21-12
62%
20-12
ATS
45%
15-18
59%
19-13
64%
21-12
62%
20-12
TTL
61%
20-13
59%
19-13
100%
33-0
100%
32-0
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