Home / NCAAB Projections NCAAB / Tigers @ Cougars PAC @ WSU

PACIFIC

TIGERSPAC

17-11  |  Road

70
FINAL
Wed, Feb 18 • 9:30 PM ET
Beasley Coliseum
View Odds Details →

WASHINGTON STATE

COUGARSWSU

11-16  |  Home

87
AI Model Win Probability
TIGERS
100%
📊
COUGARS
0%
TIGERS --
COUGARS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
132.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 100%
Under 0 0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-28.0
WASHINGTON STATE
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +28.0 points (Washington State)
TigersPAC (-3.5) 0 CougarsWSU (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Tigers Cover

0.3%

Cougars Cover

99.7%

+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around WSU -28.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (WSU)

PAC By 1-7 points

0.2%

PAC By 8-14 points

0.0%

WSU By 1-7 points

1.7%

WSU By 8-14 points

6.8%

AI Model Projected Score
52
PACIFIC
80
WASHINGTON STATE
Simulated Score
60
PACIFIC
75
WASHINGTON STATE
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Cougars Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Cougars Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Cougars (-2.5) Win
Proj Spread: -28.0
D
Sim Cougars (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -15.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI u144.5 Loss
Proj Total: 132.0
D
Sim u144.5 Win
Proj Total: 135.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Feb 18, 2026 PAC @ WSU 70 - 87
Jan 30, 2025 WSU @ PAC 68 - 70
Jan 9, 2025 PAC @ WSU 95 - 94
Key Model Drivers
Blocks (L5) +74.9% more
Washington State: 3.5 vs Pacific: 2.0
Steals (L5) +43.4% more
Washington State: 6.1 vs Pacific: 4.2
Turnovers (L5) +16.5% more
Washington State: 14.9 vs Pacific: 12.8
Free Throw % (L5) +3.2%
Washington State: 79.4% vs Pacific: 76.2%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
PAC Score 52.0 70
WSU Score 80.0 87
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 36.5 / 42.2 50.0 / 38.0
Assists 13.6 / 16.9 18.0 / 12.0
Blocks 3.5 / 2.0 1.0 / 2.0
Field Goal % 45.5 / 46.3 57.0 / 43.0
Free Throw % 79.4 / 76.2 63.0 / 73.0
Rebounding 30.0 / 37.4 35.0 / 32.0
Steals 6.1 / 4.2 4.0 / 3.0
Turnovers 14.9 / 12.8 7.0 / 10.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
37%TICKETS63%
16%MONEY84%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
40%TICKETS60%
26%MONEY74%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
67%TICKETS33%
40%MONEY60%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
PAC Advantage
18-15-0 (54.6%)
Margin: 3.9 ATS +/-: +2.0
WSU
12-20-0 (37.5%)
Margin: -1.4 ATS +/-: -0.5
🎯 ATS (Spread)
PAC Advantage
16-14-1 (53.3%)
Margin: 3.9 ATS +/-: +2.0
WSU
15-16-0 (48.4%)
Margin: -1.4 ATS +/-: -0.5
⚖️ Over/Under
PAC
10-19-2
O: 34.5% / U: 65.5% Total +/-: -2.0
WSU
16-15-0
O: 51.6% / U: 48.4% Total +/-: +2.0
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
WSU
PAC
WSU
PAC
ML
78% 25-7
45% 15-18
69% 20-9
80% 24-6
ATS
78% 25-7
55% 18-15
69% 20-9
80% 24-6
TTL
62% 20-12
58% 19-14
100% 29-0
100% 30-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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