SAINT MARY'S
GAELSSMC
23-4 | Road
72
SEATTLE U
REDHAWKSSEA
16-11 | Home
70
AI Model Win Probability
GAELS
100%
REDHAWKS
0%
GAELS
--
REDHAWKS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
156.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
0%
Under 0
100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-34.0
SEATTLE U
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +34.0 points (Seattle U)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around SEA -34.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (SEA)
SMC By 1-7 points
0.0%
SMC By 8-14 points
0.0%
SEA By 1-7 points
0.4%
SEA By 8-14 points
2.2%
AI Model Projected Score
Saint Mary's
61
SAINT MARY'S
Seattle U
95
SEATTLE U
Simulated Score
Saint Mary's
60
SAINT MARY'S
Seattle U
75
SEATTLE U
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI
Redhawks
Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Redhawks
Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Redhawks (+9.5)
Win
Proj Spread: -34.0
D
Sim
Redhawks (+0)
Loss
Proj Spread: -15.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o133.5
Win
Proj Total: 156.0
D
Sim
u133.5
Win
Proj Total: 135.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Feb 18, 2026
SMC @ SEA
72 - 70
Jan 4, 2026
SEA @ SMC
76 - 93
Dec 28, 2019
SEA @ SMC
58 - 84
Key Model Drivers
Turnovers (L5)
+44.1% more
Seattle U: 12.3
vs
Saint Mary's: 8.5
Assists (L5)
+37.4% more
Saint Mary's: 19.4
vs
Seattle U: 12.2
Rebounding (L5)
+20.4% more
Saint Mary's: 42.4
vs
Seattle U: 33.8
3pt Field Goal % (L5)
+7.0%
Saint Mary's: 40.3%
vs
Seattle U: 33.4%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
SMC Score
61.0
72
SEA Score
95.0
70
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal %
33.4 / 40.3
25.0 / 25.0
Assists
12.2 / 19.4
7.0 / 7.0
Blocks
4.6 / 4.3
5.0 / 5.0
Field Goal %
40.2 / 44.6
45.0 / 44.0
Free Throw %
72.3 / 77.6
68.0 / 78.0
Rebounding
33.8 / 42.4
27.0 / 36.0
Steals
6.2 / 6.4
5.0 / 4.0
Turnovers
12.3 / 8.5
12.0 / 15.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
SMC
Advantage
27-6-0
(81.8%)
Margin: 12.8
ATS +/-: +1.3
SEA
21-14-0
(60.0%)
Margin: 4.9
ATS +/-: +0.5
🎯 ATS (Spread)
SMC
Advantage
19-13-0
(59.4%)
Margin: 12.8
ATS +/-: +1.3
SEA
15-17-1
(46.9%)
Margin: 4.9
ATS +/-: +0.5
⚖️ Over/Under
SMC
14-18-0
O: 43.8% / U: 56.3%
Total +/-: -1.2
SEA
13-20-0
O: 39.4% / U: 60.6%
Total +/-: -4.8
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
SEA
SMC
SEA
SMC
ML
46%
16-19
56%
18-14
71%
24-10
82%
23-5
ATS
57%
20-15
62%
20-12
71%
24-10
83%
24-5
TTL
49%
17-18
53%
17-15
100%
34-0
100%
29-0
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