Home / NCAAB Projections NCAAB / Shockers @ Pirates WICH @ ECU

WICHITA STATE

SHOCKERSWICH

16-10  |  Road

92
FINAL
Wed, Feb 18 • 7:00 PM ET
Minges Coliseum
View Odds Details →

EAST CAROLINA

PIRATESECU

9-16  |  Home

89
AI Model Win Probability
SHOCKERS
0%
📊
PIRATES
100%
SHOCKERS --
PIRATES --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
132.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 100%
Under 0 0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-10.0
WICHITA STATE
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +10.0 points (Wichita State)
ShockersWICH (-3.5) 0 PiratesECU (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Shockers Cover

84.1%

Pirates Cover

15.9%

-30-20-100+10+20+30
Distribution centered around WICH -10.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (WICH)

WICH By 1-7 points

23.0%

WICH By 8-14 points

27.2%

ECU By 1-7 points

10.7%

ECU By 8-14 points

3.3%

AI Model Projected Score
71
WICHITA STATE
61
EAST CAROLINA
Simulated Score
68
WICHITA STATE
72
EAST CAROLINA
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Shockers Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Pirates Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI Shockers (+8.5) Win
Proj Spread: -10.0
D
Sim Pirates (+0) Loss
Proj Spread: -4.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI u149.5 Loss
Proj Total: 132.0
D
Sim u149.5 Win
Proj Total: 140.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Feb 18, 2026 WICH @ ECU 92 - 89
Jan 21, 2026 ECU @ WICH 60 - 77
Jan 18, 2025 ECU @ WICH 75 - 72
Feb 15, 2024 WICH @ ECU 55 - 68
Jan 24, 2024 ECU @ WICH 54 - 52
Key Model Drivers
Steals (L5) +24.9% more
Wichita State: 7.9 vs East Carolina: 5.9
Turnovers (L5) +12.8% more
Wichita State: 9.7 vs East Carolina: 8.5
Rebounding (L5) +9.5% more
Wichita State: 40.0 vs East Carolina: 36.2
Assists (L5) +17.8% more
East Carolina: 13.7 vs Wichita State: 11.6
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
WICH Score 71.0 92
ECU Score 61.0 89
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 35.6 / 24.2 23.0 / 23.0
Assists 13.7 / 11.6 12.0 / 12.0
Blocks 4.7 / 4.1 6.0 / 3.0
Field Goal % 47.6 / 44.0 45.0 / 47.0
Free Throw % 77.2 / 61.6 57.0 / 65.0
Rebounding 36.2 / 40.0 45.0 / 45.0
Steals 5.9 / 7.9 7.0 / 5.0
Turnovers 8.5 / 9.7 11.0 / 15.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
92%TICKETS8%
77%MONEY23%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
46%TICKETS54%
54%MONEY46%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
50%TICKETS50%
84%MONEY16%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
WICH Advantage
24-12-0 (66.7%)
Margin: 7.3 ATS +/-: +3.3
ECU
11-20-0 (35.5%)
Margin: -5.9 ATS +/-: -2.5
🎯 ATS (Spread)
WICH Advantage
22-13-0 (62.9%)
Margin: 7.3 ATS +/-: +3.3
ECU
12-18-0 (40.0%)
Margin: -5.9 ATS +/-: -2.5
⚖️ Over/Under
WICH
15-20-0
O: 42.9% / U: 57.1% Total +/-: -1.0
ECU
16-14-0
O: 53.3% / U: 46.7% Total +/-: +3.9
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
ECU
WICH
ECU
WICH
ML
55% 17-14
61% 22-14
55% 17-14
68% 23-11
ATS
52% 16-15
64% 23-13
55% 17-14
68% 23-11
TTL
61% 19-12
69% 25-11
100% 31-0
100% 34-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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