VANDERBILT
COMMODORESVAN
21-4 | Road
80
MISSOURI
TIGERSMIZ
17-8 | Home
81
AI Model Win Probability
COMMODORES
0%
TIGERS
100%
COMMODORES
--
TIGERS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
158.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
0%
Under 0
100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-22.0
VANDERBILT
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +22.0 points (Vanderbilt)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
-30-20-100+10+20+30
Distribution centered around VAN -22.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (VAN)
VAN By 1-7 points
5.8%
VAN By 8-14 points
15.3%
MIZ By 1-7 points
1.1%
MIZ By 8-14 points
0.1%
AI Model Projected Score
Vanderbilt
90
VANDERBILT
Missouri
68
MISSOURI
Simulated Score
Vanderbilt
70
VANDERBILT
Missouri
75
MISSOURI
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI
Commodores
Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Tigers
Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI
Commodores (+3.5)
Win
Proj Spread: -22.0
D
Sim
Tigers (+0)
Win
Proj Spread: -5.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o154.5
Win
Proj Total: 158.0
D
Sim
u154.5
Win
Proj Total: 145.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Feb 18, 2026
VAN @ MIZ
80 - 81
Mar 1, 2025
MIZ @ VAN
93 - 97
Jan 11, 2025
VAN @ MIZ
66 - 75
Feb 3, 2024
MIZ @ VAN
61 - 68
Jan 7, 2023
VAN @ MIZ
82 - 85
Key Model Drivers
Steals (L5)
+18.0% more
Vanderbilt: 5.7
vs
Missouri: 4.7
Free Throw % (L5)
+15.2%
Vanderbilt: 81.3%
vs
Missouri: 66.1%
Blocks (L5)
+9.2% more
Vanderbilt: 4.2
vs
Missouri: 3.9
Turnovers (L5)
+13.3% more
Missouri: 10.5
vs
Vanderbilt: 9.3
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
VAN Score
90.0
80
MIZ Score
68.0
81
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal %
35.1 / 34.3
50.0 / 40.0
Assists
13.1 / 13.8
16.0 / 11.0
Blocks
3.9 / 4.2
2.0 / 5.0
Field Goal %
45.6 / 45.0
44.0 / 43.0
Free Throw %
66.1 / 81.3
78.0 / 78.0
Rebounding
35.1 / 34.3
34.0 / 37.0
Steals
4.7 / 5.7
8.0 / 10.0
Turnovers
10.5 / 9.3
14.0 / 11.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
VAN
Advantage
27-9-0
(75.0%)
Margin: 10.8
ATS +/-: +0.7
MIZ
20-13-0
(60.6%)
Margin: 3.8
ATS +/-: -2.3
🎯 ATS (Spread)
VAN
Advantage
18-18-0
(50.0%)
Margin: 10.8
ATS +/-: +0.7
MIZ
14-19-0
(42.4%)
Margin: 3.8
ATS +/-: -2.3
⚖️ Over/Under
VAN
17-19-0
O: 47.2% / U: 52.8%
Total +/-: +1.3
MIZ
16-16-1
O: 50.0% / U: 50.0%
Total +/-: -0.3
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
MIZ
VAN
MIZ
VAN
ML
61%
20-13
69%
25-11
69%
22-10
56%
18-14
ATS
70%
23-10
78%
28-8
69%
22-10
56%
18-14
TTL
79%
26-7
58%
21-15
100%
32-0
100%
32-0
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