ILLINOIS
FIGHTING ILLINIILL
21-5 | Road
101
USC
TROJANSUSC
18-7 | Home
65
AI Model Win Probability
FIGHTING ILLINI
100%
TROJANS
0%
FIGHTING ILLINI
--
TROJANS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
129.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
100%
Under 0
0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-29.0
USC
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +29.0 points (USC)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around USC -29.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (USC)
ILL By 1-7 points
0.1%
ILL By 8-14 points
0.0%
USC By 1-7 points
1.4%
USC By 8-14 points
5.8%
AI Model Projected Score
Illinois
50
ILLINOIS
USC
79
USC
Simulated Score
Illinois
73
ILLINOIS
USC
76
USC
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI
Trojans
Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Trojans
Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Trojans (+8.5)
Loss
Proj Spread: -29.0
D
Sim
Trojans (+0)
Loss
Proj Spread: -3.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
u150.5
Loss
Proj Total: 129.0
D
Sim
u150.5
Win
Proj Total: 149.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Feb 18, 2026
ILL @ USC
101 - 65
Jan 11, 2025
USC @ ILL
82 - 72
Key Model Drivers
Steals (L5)
+117.8% more
USC: 8.2
vs
Illinois: 3.8
Turnovers (L5)
+86.9% more
USC: 12.7
vs
Illinois: 6.8
Blocks (L5)
+38.1% more
USC: 5.3
vs
Illinois: 3.8
Rebounding (L5)
+10.4% more
Illinois: 39.3
vs
USC: 35.2
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
ILL Score
50.0
101
USC Score
79.0
65
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal %
32.3 / 33.2
39.0 / 45.0
Assists
12.6 / 13.6
16.0 / 21.0
Blocks
5.3 / 3.8
2.0 / 7.0
Field Goal %
45.6 / 45.5
37.0 / 52.0
Free Throw %
72.7 / 76.7
60.0 / 92.0
Rebounding
35.2 / 39.3
30.0 / 41.0
Steals
8.2 / 3.8
5.0 / 7.0
Turnovers
12.7 / 6.8
14.0 / 9.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
ILL
Advantage
28-9-0
(75.7%)
Margin: 14.5
ATS +/-: +2.9
USC
18-14-0
(56.3%)
Margin: 0.7
ATS +/-: -3.5
🎯 ATS (Spread)
ILL
Advantage
22-15-0
(59.5%)
Margin: 14.5
ATS +/-: +2.9
USC
13-18-0
(41.9%)
Margin: 0.7
ATS +/-: -3.5
⚖️ Over/Under
ILL
15-22-0
O: 40.5% / U: 59.5%
Total +/-: -1.4
USC
17-14-0
O: 54.8% / U: 45.2%
Total +/-: +2.5
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
USC
ILL
USC
ILL
ML
52%
16-15
65%
24-13
58%
18-13
57%
20-15
ATS
68%
21-10
70%
26-11
58%
18-13
57%
20-15
TTL
68%
21-10
57%
21-16
100%
31-0
100%
35-0
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