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AUBURN

TIGERSAUB

14-11  |  Road

85
FINAL
Wed, Feb 18 • 9:00 PM ET
Humphrey Coliseum
View Odds Details →

MISSISSIPPI STATE

BULLDOGSMSST

12-13  |  Home

91
AI Model Win Probability
TIGERS
0%
📊
BULLDOGS
100%
TIGERS --
BULLDOGS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
138.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 100%
Under 0 0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-22.0
AUBURN
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +22.0 points (Auburn)
TigersAUB (-3.5) 0 BulldogsMSST (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Tigers Cover

98.6%

Bulldogs Cover

1.4%

-30-20-100+10+20+30
Distribution centered around AUB -22.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (AUB)

AUB By 1-7 points

5.8%

AUB By 8-14 points

15.3%

MSST By 1-7 points

1.1%

MSST By 8-14 points

0.1%

AI Model Projected Score
80
AUBURN
58
MISSISSIPPI STATE
Simulated Score
70
AUBURN
78
MISSISSIPPI STATE
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Tigers Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Bulldogs Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI Tigers (+5.5) Loss
Proj Spread: -22.0
D
Sim Bulldogs (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -8.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI u154.5 Loss
Proj Total: 138.0
D
Sim u154.5 Win
Proj Total: 148.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Mar 11, 2026 MSST @ AUB 61 - 79
Feb 18, 2026 AUB @ MSST 85 - 91
Jan 14, 2025 MSST @ AUB 66 - 88
Mar 16, 2024 MSST @ AUB 66 - 73
Mar 2, 2024 MSST @ AUB 63 - 78
Key Model Drivers
Free Throw % (L5) +15.0%
Auburn: 76.2% vs Mississippi State: 61.2%
Steals (L5) +8.8% more
Auburn: 4.9 vs Mississippi State: 4.5
Turnovers (L5) +51.7% more
Mississippi State: 11.2 vs Auburn: 7.4
Assists (L5) +33.6% more
Mississippi State: 13.8 vs Auburn: 10.3
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
AUB Score 80.0 85
MSST Score 58.0 91
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 35.4 / 33.6 53.0 / 46.0
Assists 13.8 / 10.3 17.0 / 12.0
Blocks 3.5 / 3.1 11.0 / 3.0
Field Goal % 48.0 / 42.5 50.0 / 39.0
Free Throw % 61.2 / 76.2 76.0 / 81.0
Rebounding 36.1 / 33.8 34.0 / 41.0
Steals 4.5 / 4.9 6.0 / 6.0
Turnovers 11.2 / 7.4 6.0 / 8.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
93%TICKETS7%
87%MONEY13%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
65%TICKETS35%
77%MONEY23%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
60%TICKETS40%
73%MONEY27%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
AUB Advantage
22-16-0 (57.9%)
Margin: 4.2 ATS +/-: -1.5
MSST
13-19-0 (40.6%)
Margin: -4.2 ATS +/-: -4.4
🎯 ATS (Spread)
AUB Advantage
15-23-0 (39.5%)
Margin: 4.2 ATS +/-: -1.5
MSST
10-22-0 (31.3%)
Margin: -4.2 ATS +/-: -4.4
⚖️ Over/Under
AUB
22-16-0
O: 57.9% / U: 42.1% Total +/-: +4.2
MSST
16-16-0
O: 50.0% / U: 50.0% Total +/-: +3.1
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
MSST
AUB
MSST
AUB
ML
66% 21-11
58% 22-16
55% 17-14
75% 24-8
ATS
56% 18-14
74% 28-10
55% 17-14
75% 24-8
TTL
59% 19-13
53% 20-18
100% 31-0
100% 32-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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