Home / NCAAB Projections NCAAB / Braves @ Beacons BRAD @ VAL

BRADLEY

BRAVESBRAD

18-9  |  Road

72
FINAL
Wed, Feb 18 • 7:00 PM ET
Athletics-Recreation Center
View Odds Details →

VALPARAISO

BEACONSVAL

14-13  |  Home

79
AI Model Win Probability
BRAVES
100%
📊
BEACONS
0%
BRAVES --
BEACONS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
177.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-1.0
VALPARAISO
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +1.0 points (Valparaiso)
BravesBRAD (-3.5) 0 BeaconsVAL (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Braves Cover

46.0%

Beacons Cover

54.0%

+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around VAL -1.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (VAL)

BRAD By 1-7 points

24.3%

BRAD By 8-14 points

13.7%

VAL By 1-7 points

26.2%

VAL By 8-14 points

16.9%

AI Model Projected Score
88
BRADLEY
89
VALPARAISO
Simulated Score
72
BRADLEY
68
VALPARAISO
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Beacons Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Braves Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI Beacons (+2.5) Win
Proj Spread: -1.0
D
Sim Braves (-0) Loss
Proj Spread: -4.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o144.5 Win
Proj Total: 177.0
D
Sim u144.5 Win
Proj Total: 140.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Mar 6, 2026 VAL @ BRAD 84 - 90
Feb 18, 2026 BRAD @ VAL 72 - 79
Feb 3, 2026 VAL @ BRAD 65 - 72
Mar 8, 2025 VAL @ BRAD 65 - 70
Feb 26, 2025 BRAD @ VAL 76 - 65
Key Model Drivers
Field Goal % (L5) +3.4%
Valparaiso: 45.6% vs Bradley: 42.2%
Steals (L5) +23.0% more
Bradley: 6.0 vs Valparaiso: 4.6
Blocks (L5) +12.2% more
Bradley: 4.1 vs Valparaiso: 3.6
Free Throw % (L5) +9.4%
Bradley: 70.8% vs Valparaiso: 61.4%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
BRAD Score 88.0 72
VAL Score 89.0 79
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 37.9 / 38.6 44.0 / 50.0
Assists 11.7 / 12.8 15.0 / 14.0
Blocks 3.6 / 4.1 4.0 / 2.0
Field Goal % 45.6 / 42.2 51.0 / 46.0
Free Throw % 61.4 / 70.8 61.0 / 71.0
Rebounding 35.3 / 33.9 30.0 / 29.0
Steals 4.6 / 6.0 3.0 / 2.0
Turnovers 9.8 / 9.2 8.0 / 15.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
79%TICKETS21%
81%MONEY19%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
70%TICKETS30%
71%MONEY29%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
54%TICKETS46%
62%MONEY38%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
BRAD Advantage
21-13-0 (61.8%)
Margin: 3.6 ATS +/-: -0.9
VAL
18-15-0 (54.6%)
Margin: 0.5 ATS +/-: +2.7
🎯 ATS (Spread)
BRAD
13-20-0 (39.4%)
Margin: 3.6 ATS +/-: -0.9
VAL Advantage
18-13-1 (58.1%)
Margin: 0.5 ATS +/-: +2.7
⚖️ Over/Under
BRAD
20-13-0
O: 60.6% / U: 39.4% Total +/-: +5.6
VAL
17-15-0
O: 53.1% / U: 46.9% Total +/-: -0.9
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
VAL
BRAD
VAL
BRAD
ML
48% 16-17
65% 22-12
61% 20-13
68% 23-11
ATS
52% 17-16
59% 20-14
61% 20-13
68% 23-11
TTL
61% 20-13
68% 23-11
100% 33-0
100% 34-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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