Home / NCAAB Projections NCAAB / Panthers @ Sycamores UNI @ INST

NORTHERN IOWA

PANTHERSUNI

17-10  |  Road

81
FINAL
Wed, Feb 18 • 7:00 PM ET
Hulman Center
View Odds Details →

INDIANA STATE

SYCAMORESINST

10-17  |  Home

60
AI Model Win Probability
PANTHERS
0%
📊
SYCAMORES
100%
PANTHERS --
SYCAMORES --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
139.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-17.0
NORTHERN IOWA
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +17.0 points (Northern Iowa)
PanthersUNI (-3.5) 0 SycamoresINST (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Panthers Cover

95.5%

Sycamores Cover

4.5%

-30-20-100+10+20+30
Distribution centered around UNI -17.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (UNI)

UNI By 1-7 points

12.2%

UNI By 8-14 points

23.0%

INST By 1-7 points

3.3%

INST By 8-14 points

0.6%

AI Model Projected Score
78
NORTHERN IOWA
61
INDIANA STATE
Simulated Score
72
NORTHERN IOWA
79
INDIANA STATE
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Panthers Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Sycamores Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI Panthers (+5.5) Win
Proj Spread: -17.0
D
Sim Sycamores (+0) Loss
Proj Spread: -7.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o136.5 Win
Proj Total: 139.0
D
Sim u136.5 Win
Proj Total: 151.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Feb 18, 2026 UNI @ INST 81 - 60
Jan 1, 2026 INST @ UNI 66 - 75
Feb 11, 2025 INST @ UNI 73 - 88
Jan 25, 2025 UNI @ INST 74 - 56
Mar 9, 2024 UNI @ INST 72 - 94
Key Model Drivers
Free Throw % (L5) +24.0%
Northern Iowa: 87.2% vs Indiana State: 63.2%
Steals (L5) +8.5% more
Northern Iowa: 5.5 vs Indiana State: 5.1
3pt Field Goal % (L5) +4.1%
Northern Iowa: 36.7% vs Indiana State: 32.7%
Field Goal % (L5) +2.6%
Northern Iowa: 51.5% vs Indiana State: 49.0%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
UNI Score 78.0 81
INST Score 61.0 60
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 32.7 / 36.7 33.0 / 48.0
Assists 18.1 / 16.7 12.0 / 13.0
Blocks 3.4 / 2.9 3.0 / 4.0
Field Goal % 49.0 / 51.5 42.0 / 57.0
Free Throw % 63.2 / 87.2 54.0 / 33.0
Rebounding 31.1 / 31.9 38.0 / 26.0
Steals 5.1 / 5.5 6.0 / 7.0
Turnovers 12.0 / 8.5 17.0 / 7.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
91%TICKETS9%
93%MONEY7%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
66%TICKETS34%
63%MONEY37%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
65%TICKETS35%
23%MONEY77%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
UNI Advantage
23-13-0 (63.9%)
Margin: 7.7 ATS +/-: +2.4
INST
11-21-0 (34.4%)
Margin: -0.9 ATS +/-: +0.5
🎯 ATS (Spread)
UNI
20-15-0 (57.1%)
Margin: 7.7 ATS +/-: +2.4
INST Advantage
17-12-1 (58.6%)
Margin: -0.9 ATS +/-: +0.5
⚖️ Over/Under
UNI
14-21-0
O: 40.0% / U: 60.0% Total +/-: -4.7
INST
13-17-0
O: 43.3% / U: 56.7% Total +/-: -3.9
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
INST
UNI
INST
UNI
ML
66% 21-11
51% 18-17
53% 17-15
56% 19-15
ATS
62% 20-12
49% 17-18
53% 17-15
56% 19-15
TTL
53% 17-15
69% 24-11
100% 32-0
100% 34-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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