Home / NCAAB Projections NCAAB / Razorbacks @ Crimson Tide ARK @ ALA

ARKANSAS

RAZORBACKSARK

19-6  |  Road

115
FINAL
Wed, Feb 18 • 7:00 PM ET
Coleman Coliseum
View Odds Details →

ALABAMA

CRIMSON TIDEALA

18-7  |  Home

117
AI Model Win Probability
RAZORBACKS
100%
📊
CRIMSON TIDE
0%
RAZORBACKS --
CRIMSON TIDE --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
194.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-20.0
ALABAMA
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +20.0 points (Alabama)
RazorbacksARK (-3.5) 0 Crimson TideALA (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Razorbacks Cover

2.3%

Crimson Tide Cover

97.7%

+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around ALA -20.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (ALA)

ARK By 1-7 points

1.7%

ARK By 8-14 points

0.3%

ALA By 1-7 points

8.0%

ALA By 8-14 points

18.6%

AI Model Projected Score
87
ARKANSAS
107
ALABAMA
Simulated Score
72
ARKANSAS
78
ALABAMA
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Crimson Tide Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Crimson Tide Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Crimson Tide (-4.5) Win
Proj Spread: -20.0
D
Sim Crimson Tide (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -6.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o185.5 Win
Proj Total: 194.0
D
Sim u185.5 Win
Proj Total: 150.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Feb 18, 2026 ARK @ ALA 115 - 117
Feb 8, 2025 ALA @ ARK 85 - 81
Mar 9, 2024 ARK @ ALA 88 - 92
Feb 25, 2023 ARK @ ALA 83 - 86
Jan 11, 2023 ALA @ ARK 84 - 69
Key Model Drivers
Turnovers (L5) +46.8% more
Alabama: 10.2 vs Arkansas: 7.0
Rebounding (L5) +21.7% more
Alabama: 40.3 vs Arkansas: 33.1
Assists (L5) +12.5% more
Alabama: 18.5 vs Arkansas: 16.4
Free Throw % (L5) +8.8%
Alabama: 78.1% vs Arkansas: 69.3%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
ARK Score 87.0 115
ALA Score 107.0 117
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 40.1 / 31.6 34.0 / 50.0
Assists 18.5 / 16.4 16.0 / 15.0
Blocks 4.1 / 8.0 1.0 / 6.0
Field Goal % 45.7 / 54.7 56.0 / 49.0
Free Throw % 78.1 / 69.3 79.0 / 84.0
Rebounding 40.3 / 33.1 43.0 / 36.0
Steals 6.3 / 5.8 5.0 / 6.0
Turnovers 10.2 / 7.0 12.0 / 7.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
37%TICKETS63%
43%MONEY57%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
66%TICKETS34%
66%MONEY34%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
34%TICKETS66%
62%MONEY38%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
ARK Advantage
28-9-0 (75.7%)
Margin: 9.2 ATS +/-: +1.9
ALA
25-10-0 (71.4%)
Margin: 8.5 ATS +/-: +1.1
🎯 ATS (Spread)
ARK Advantage
23-14-0 (62.2%)
Margin: 9.2 ATS +/-: +1.9
ALA
15-19-0 (44.1%)
Margin: 8.5 ATS +/-: +1.1
⚖️ Over/Under
ARK
22-15-0
O: 59.5% / U: 40.5% Total +/-: +8.0
ALA
17-16-1
O: 51.5% / U: 48.5% Total +/-: +0.2
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
ALA
ARK
ALA
ARK
ML
63% 22-13
68% 25-12
58% 19-14
81% 25-6
ATS
60% 21-14
70% 26-11
58% 19-14
81% 25-6
TTL
63% 22-13
57% 21-16
100% 33-0
100% 31-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
Contextual Game News
Tyrese Haliburton Set to Make Emotional Return to Iowa State as …
kcci 1 day, 6 hours ago
Aden Holloway Reinstated to Alabama Basketball Roster, Suspended…
saturdaydownsouth 2 days, 6 hours ago
Indiana Hoosiers Fans Invade Rutgers Homecoming as Hoosiers Roll…
app 4 days, 19 hours ago
Houston Cougars Erase 17-Point Deficit to Stun UCF in Space Game
si 5 days ago
Alabama's Keelon Russell Silences Doubters with Explosive Perfor…
si 5 days ago