RUTGERS
SCARLET KNIGHTSRUTG
10-15 | Road
85
PENN STATE
NITTANY LIONSPSU
11-15 | Home
72
AI Model Win Probability
SCARLET KNIGHTS
100%
NITTANY LIONS
0%
SCARLET KNIGHTS
--
NITTANY LIONS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
143.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
100%
Under 0
0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-13.0
PENN STATE
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +13.0 points (Penn State)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around PSU -13.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (PSU)
RUTG By 1-7 points
6.8%
RUTG By 8-14 points
1.7%
PSU By 1-7 points
18.6%
PSU By 8-14 points
26.8%
AI Model Projected Score
Rutgers
65
RUTGERS
Penn State
78
PENN STATE
Simulated Score
Rutgers
61
RUTGERS
Penn State
68
PENN STATE
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI
Nittany Lions
Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Nittany Lions
Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Nittany Lions (-4.5)
Loss
Proj Spread: -13.0
D
Sim
Nittany Lions (+0)
Loss
Proj Spread: -7.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
u148.5
Loss
Proj Total: 143.0
D
Sim
u148.5
Win
Proj Total: 129.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Mar 8, 2026
PSU @ RUTG
62 - 74
Feb 18, 2026
RUTG @ PSU
85 - 72
Jan 20, 2025
RUTG @ PSU
72 - 80
Dec 10, 2024
PSU @ RUTG
76 - 80
Jan 31, 2024
PSU @ RUTG
61 - 46
Key Model Drivers
Steals (L5)
+122.5% more
Penn State: 8.5
vs
Rutgers: 3.8
Free Throw % (L5)
+6.9%
Penn State: 77.4%
vs
Rutgers: 70.5%
Field Goal % (L5)
+2.5%
Penn State: 45.5%
vs
Rutgers: 43.0%
Blocks (L5)
+34.4% more
Rutgers: 3.5
vs
Penn State: 2.3
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
RUTG Score
65.0
85
PSU Score
78.0
72
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal %
31.0 / 30.8
18.0 / 31.0
Assists
8.8 / 12.4
12.0 / 16.0
Blocks
2.3 / 3.5
2.0 / 1.0
Field Goal %
45.5 / 43.0
55.0 / 57.0
Free Throw %
77.4 / 70.5
77.0 / 87.0
Rebounding
28.0 / 33.6
24.0 / 26.0
Steals
8.5 / 3.8
7.0 / 10.0
Turnovers
10.9 / 10.4
15.0 / 12.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
RUTG
Advantage
14-20-0
(41.2%)
Margin: -4.8
ATS +/-: -0.3
PSU
12-20-0
(37.5%)
Margin: -5.7
ATS +/-: -3.3
🎯 ATS (Spread)
RUTG
Advantage
17-17-0
(50.0%)
Margin: -4.8
ATS +/-: -0.3
PSU
12-20-0
(37.5%)
Margin: -5.7
ATS +/-: -3.3
⚖️ Over/Under
RUTG
20-14-0
O: 58.8% / U: 41.2%
Total +/-: +2.6
PSU
18-14-0
O: 56.3% / U: 43.8%
Total +/-: +1.8
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
PSU
RUTG
PSU
RUTG
ML
72%
23-9
53%
18-16
56%
18-14
70%
23-10
ATS
72%
23-9
68%
23-11
56%
18-14
70%
23-10
TTL
66%
21-11
53%
18-16
100%
32-0
100%
33-0
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