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EAST TENNESSEE STATE

BUCCANEERSETSU

19-8  |  Road

78
FINAL
Wed, Feb 18 • 6:30 PM ET
Timmons Arena
View Odds Details →

FURMAN

PALADINSFUR

17-10  |  Home

69
AI Model Win Probability
BUCCANEERS
100%
📊
PALADINS
0%
BUCCANEERS --
PALADINS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
167.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-23.0
FURMAN
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +23.0 points (Furman)
BuccaneersETSU (-3.5) 0 PaladinsFUR (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Buccaneers Cover

1.1%

Paladins Cover

98.9%

+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around FUR -23.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (FUR)

ETSU By 1-7 points

0.8%

ETSU By 8-14 points

0.1%

FUR By 1-7 points

4.8%

FUR By 8-14 points

13.7%

AI Model Projected Score
72
EAST TENNESSEE STATE
95
FURMAN
Simulated Score
81
EAST TENNESSEE STATE
76
FURMAN
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Paladins Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Buccaneers Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI Paladins (-1.5) Loss
Proj Spread: -23.0
D
Sim Buccaneers (-0) Win
Proj Spread: -5.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o140.5 Win
Proj Total: 167.0
D
Sim u140.5 Win
Proj Total: 157.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Mar 9, 2026 FUR @ ETSU 76 - 61
Feb 18, 2026 ETSU @ FUR 78 - 69
Feb 4, 2026 FUR @ ETSU 71 - 75
Feb 2, 2025 FUR @ ETSU 69 - 72
Jan 15, 2025 ETSU @ FUR 70 - 73
Key Model Drivers
Turnovers (L5) +20.6% more
Furman: 11.9 vs East Tennessee State: 9.9
Blocks (L5) +15.1% more
Furman: 4.0 vs East Tennessee State: 3.5
Assists (L5) +9.5% more
Furman: 16.6 vs East Tennessee State: 15.2
Field Goal % (L5) +3.1%
Furman: 47.7% vs East Tennessee State: 44.6%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
ETSU Score 72.0 78
FUR Score 95.0 69
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 32.2 / 31.3 18.0 / 50.0
Assists 16.6 / 15.2 11.0 / 11.0
Blocks 4.0 / 3.5 3.0 / 3.0
Field Goal % 47.7 / 44.6 35.0 / 45.0
Free Throw % 71.2 / 78.4 75.0 / 74.0
Rebounding 37.8 / 35.1 39.0 / 38.0
Steals 3.8 / 7.8 1.0 / 8.0
Turnovers 11.9 / 9.9 9.0 / 11.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
35%TICKETS65%
26%MONEY74%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
44%TICKETS56%
43%MONEY57%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
59%TICKETS41%
71%MONEY29%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
ETSU Advantage
23-11-0 (67.7%)
Margin: 8.3 ATS +/-: +0.5
FUR
22-13-0 (62.9%)
Margin: 5.5 ATS +/-: -0.3
🎯 ATS (Spread)
ETSU
14-18-0 (43.8%)
Margin: 8.3 ATS +/-: +0.5
FUR Advantage
15-17-0 (46.9%)
Margin: 5.5 ATS +/-: -0.3
⚖️ Over/Under
ETSU
17-15-0
O: 53.1% / U: 46.9% Total +/-: +2.5
FUR
15-16-1
O: 48.4% / U: 51.6% Total +/-: -0.9
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
FUR
ETSU
FUR
ETSU
ML
71% 25-10
42% 14-19
62% 21-13
70% 23-10
ATS
63% 22-13
58% 19-14
62% 21-13
70% 23-10
TTL
57% 20-15
45% 15-18
100% 34-0
100% 33-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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