PHOENIX
SUNSPHX
32-23 | Road
94
SAN ANTONIO
SPURSSA
38-16 | Home
121
AI Model Win Probability
SUNS
100%
SPURS
0%
SUNS
--
SPURS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
226.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
100%
Under 0
0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-10.0
SAN ANTONIO
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +10.0 points (San Antonio)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around SA -10.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (SA)
PHX By 1-7 points
10.7%
PHX By 8-14 points
3.3%
SA By 1-7 points
23.0%
SA By 8-14 points
27.2%
AI Model Projected Score
Phoenix
108
PHOENIX
San Antonio
118
SAN ANTONIO
Simulated Score
Phoenix
105
PHOENIX
San Antonio
118
SAN ANTONIO
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI
Spurs
Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Spurs
Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Spurs (-8)
Win
Proj Spread: -10.0
D
Sim
Spurs (+0)
Win
Proj Spread: -13.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
u229.5
Win
Proj Total: 226.0
D
Sim
u229.5
Win
Proj Total: 223.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Mar 19, 2026
PHX @ SA
100 - 101
Feb 19, 2026
PHX @ SA
94 - 121
Nov 23, 2025
SA @ PHX
102 - 111
Nov 2, 2025
SA @ PHX
118 - 130
Apr 11, 2025
SA @ PHX
98 - 117
Key Model Drivers
Blocks (L5)
+114.4% more
San Antonio: 6.7
vs
Phoenix: 3.1
Assists (L5)
+26.2% more
San Antonio: 32.8
vs
Phoenix: 26.0
Steals (L5)
+9.7% more
San Antonio: 8.1
vs
Phoenix: 7.4
Rebounding (L5)
+9.6% more
San Antonio: 47.2
vs
Phoenix: 43.1
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
PHX Score
108.0
94
SA Score
118.0
121
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal %
33.6 / 34.7
35.0 / 29.0
Assists
32.8 / 26.0
30.0 / 22.0
Blocks
6.7 / 3.1
7.0 / 5.0
Field Goal %
51.7 / 46.0
52.0 / 37.0
Free Throw %
78.5 / 70.5
90.0 / 67.0
Rebounding
47.2 / 43.1
50.0 / 46.0
Steals
8.1 / 7.4
6.0 / 7.0
Turnovers
13.0 / 12.8
12.0 / 13.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
PHX
46-42-0
(52.3%)
Margin: 0.7
ATS +/-: +1.4
SA
Advantage
75-31-0
(70.8%)
Margin: 8.0
ATS +/-: +3.2
🎯 ATS (Spread)
PHX
50-38-0
(56.8%)
Margin: 0.7
ATS +/-: +1.4
SA
Advantage
60-44-2
(57.7%)
Margin: 8.0
ATS +/-: +3.2
⚖️ Over/Under
PHX
40-48-0
O: 45.5% / U: 54.6%
Total +/-: -1.6
SA
49-57-0
O: 46.2% / U: 53.8%
Total +/-: -1.1
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
SA
PHX
SA
PHX
ML
60%
111-73
57%
60-45
58%
61-44
51%
45-43
ATS
58%
107-76-1
58%
59-43-3
58%
61-44
51%
45-43
TTL
74%
134-47-3
59%
61-42-2
100%
105-0
100%
88-0
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