NORTH CAROLINA
TAR HEELSUNC
20-5 | Road
58
NC STATE
WOLFPACKNCSU
18-8 | Home
82
AI Model Win Probability
TAR HEELS
100%
WOLFPACK
0%
TAR HEELS
--
WOLFPACK
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
140.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
100%
Under 0
0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-48.0
NC STATE
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +48.0 points (NC State)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around NCSU -48.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (NCSU)
UNC By 1-7 points
0.0%
UNC By 8-14 points
0.0%
NCSU By 1-7 points
0.0%
NCSU By 8-14 points
0.0%
AI Model Projected Score
North Carolina
46
NORTH CAROLINA
NC State
94
NC STATE
Simulated Score
North Carolina
78
NORTH CAROLINA
NC State
72
NC STATE
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI
Wolfpack
Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Tar Heels
Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI
Wolfpack (-7.5)
Win
Proj Spread: -48.0
D
Sim
Tar Heels (-0)
Loss
Proj Spread: -6.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
u155.5
Win
Proj Total: 140.0
D
Sim
u155.5
Win
Proj Total: 150.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Feb 17, 2026
UNC @ NCSU
58 - 82
Feb 19, 2025
NCSU @ UNC
73 - 97
Jan 11, 2025
UNC @ NCSU
63 - 61
Mar 16, 2024
NCSU @ UNC
84 - 76
Mar 2, 2024
NCSU @ UNC
70 - 79
Key Model Drivers
Blocks (L5)
+90.5% more
NC State: 4.4
vs
North Carolina: 2.3
Turnovers (L5)
+35.7% more
NC State: 9.6
vs
North Carolina: 7.1
Steals (L5)
+34.5% more
NC State: 7.0
vs
North Carolina: 5.2
Free Throw % (L5)
+2.1%
NC State: 80.8%
vs
North Carolina: 78.7%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
UNC Score
46.0
58
NCSU Score
94.0
82
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal %
35.8 / 36.1
45.0 / 15.0
Assists
13.6 / 16.0
13.0 / 9.0
Blocks
4.4 / 2.3
3.0 / 3.0
Field Goal %
47.5 / 45.9
48.0 / 32.0
Free Throw %
80.8 / 78.7
69.0 / 71.0
Rebounding
30.5 / 31.8
38.0 / 40.0
Steals
7.0 / 5.2
7.0 / 0.0
Turnovers
9.6 / 7.1
4.0 / 12.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
UNC
Advantage
24-9-0
(72.7%)
Margin: 8.1
ATS +/-: +0.5
NCSU
20-14-0
(58.8%)
Margin: 6.9
ATS +/-: -1.1
🎯 ATS (Spread)
UNC
Advantage
19-14-0
(57.6%)
Margin: 8.1
ATS +/-: +0.5
NCSU
16-17-1
(48.5%)
Margin: 6.9
ATS +/-: -1.1
⚖️ Over/Under
UNC
14-19-0
O: 42.4% / U: 57.6%
Total +/-: -2.2
NCSU
21-13-0
O: 61.8% / U: 38.2%
Total +/-: +6.0
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
NCSU
UNC
NCSU
UNC
ML
59%
20-14
76%
25-8
55%
18-15
69%
22-10
ATS
71%
24-10
73%
24-9
55%
18-15
69%
22-10
TTL
71%
24-10
55%
18-15
100%
33-0
100%
32-0
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