LSU
TIGERSLSU
14-11 | Road
85
TEXAS
LONGHORNSTEX
16-9 | Home
88
AI Model Win Probability
TIGERS
0%
LONGHORNS
100%
TIGERS
--
LONGHORNS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
164.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
0%
Under 0
100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
+6.0
TEXAS
Book Spread
--
Book Line
Spread Distribution
AI Model
-30-20-100+10+20+30
Distribution centered around TEX +6.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (TEX)
LSU By 1-7 points
26.8%
LSU By 8-14 points
24.3%
TEX By 1-7 points
16.9%
TEX By 8-14 points
6.8%
AI Model Projected Score
LSU
85
LSU
Texas
79
TEXAS
Simulated Score
LSU
72
LSU
Texas
78
TEXAS
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI
Tigers
Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Longhorns
Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Longhorns (+11)
Win
Proj Spread: +6.0
D
Sim
Longhorns (+0)
Win
Proj Spread: -6.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o151.0
Win
Proj Total: 164.0
D
Sim
u151.0
Win
Proj Total: 150.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Feb 17, 2026
LSU @ TEX
85 - 88
Feb 1, 2025
TEX @ LSU
89 - 58
Dec 16, 2023
LSU @ TEX
85 - 96
Jan 25, 2020
LSU @ TEX
69 - 67
Key Model Drivers
Assists (L5)
+13.5% more
LSU: 12.6
vs
Texas: 10.9
Free Throw % (L5)
+13.6%
Texas: 84.5%
vs
LSU: 70.9%
Field Goal % (L5)
+10.4%
Texas: 50.1%
vs
LSU: 39.7%
Blocks (L5)
+10.1% more
Texas: 2.2
vs
LSU: 2.0
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
LSU Score
85.0
85
TEX Score
79.0
88
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal %
34.9 / 27.3
54.0 / 42.0
Assists
10.9 / 12.6
9.0 / 13.0
Blocks
2.2 / 2.0
3.0 / 4.0
Field Goal %
50.1 / 39.7
56.0 / 52.0
Free Throw %
84.5 / 70.9
68.0 / 84.0
Rebounding
35.3 / 32.1
34.0 / 27.0
Steals
5.4 / 5.7
4.0 / 7.0
Turnovers
9.7 / 9.1
8.0 / 5.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
LSU
--
TEX
Advantage
21-15-0
(58.3%)
Margin: 6.6
ATS +/-: +0.6
🎯 ATS (Spread)
LSU
--
TEX
Advantage
20-15-0
(57.1%)
Margin: 6.6
ATS +/-: +0.6
⚖️ Over/Under
LSU
--
TEX
20-15-0
O: 57.1% / U: 42.9%
Total +/-: +2.6
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
TEX
LSU
TEX
LSU
ML
58%
21-15
62%
20-12
56%
19-15
62%
20-12
ATS
56%
20-16
66%
21-11
56%
19-15
62%
20-12
TTL
64%
23-13
72%
23-9
100%
34-0
100%
32-0
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