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UCLA

BRUINSUCLA

17-8  |  Road

59
FINAL
Tue, Feb 17 • 8:30 PM ET
Breslin Center
View Odds Details →

MICHIGAN STATE

SPARTANSMSU

20-5  |  Home

82
AI Model Win Probability
BRUINS
100%
📊
SPARTANS
0%
BRUINS --
SPARTANS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
169.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-1.0
MICHIGAN STATE
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +1.0 points (Michigan State)
BruinsUCLA (-3.5) 0 SpartansMSU (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Bruins Cover

46.0%

Spartans Cover

54.0%

+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around MSU -1.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (MSU)

UCLA By 1-7 points

24.3%

UCLA By 8-14 points

13.7%

MSU By 1-7 points

26.2%

MSU By 8-14 points

16.9%

AI Model Projected Score
84
UCLA
85
MICHIGAN STATE
Simulated Score
68
UCLA
72
MICHIGAN STATE
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Spartans Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Spartans Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Spartans (+8) Win
Proj Spread: -1.0
D
Sim Spartans (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -4.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o139.0 Win
Proj Total: 169.0
D
Sim u139.0 Win
Proj Total: 140.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Mar 13, 2026 UCLA @ MSU 88 - 84
Feb 17, 2026 UCLA @ MSU 59 - 82
Feb 4, 2025 MSU @ UCLA 61 - 63
Key Model Drivers
Blocks (L5) +70.9% more
Michigan State: 3.0 vs UCLA: 1.8
Assists (L5) +28.9% more
Michigan State: 16.7 vs UCLA: 12.9
Rebounding (L5) +23.9% more
Michigan State: 40.4 vs UCLA: 32.6
Free Throw % (L5) +14.0%
Michigan State: 84.8% vs UCLA: 70.8%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
UCLA Score 84.0 59
MSU Score 85.0 82
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 31.1 / 38.8 52.0 / 32.0
Assists 16.7 / 12.9 21.0 / 11.0
Blocks 3.0 / 1.8 5.0 / 4.0
Field Goal % 42.3 / 42.9 53.0 / 37.0
Free Throw % 84.8 / 70.8 91.0 / 75.0
Rebounding 40.4 / 32.6 37.0 / 27.0
Steals 4.2 / 5.3 5.0 / 6.0
Turnovers 9.9 / 8.7 14.0 / 11.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
3%TICKETS97%
14%MONEY86%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
29%TICKETS71%
20%MONEY80%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
69%TICKETS31%
78%MONEY22%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
UCLA
24-12-0 (66.7%)
Margin: 6.0 ATS +/-: 0.0
MSU Advantage
27-8-0 (77.1%)
Margin: 10.5 ATS +/-: +1.5
🎯 ATS (Spread)
UCLA
17-18-1 (48.6%)
Margin: 6.0 ATS +/-: 0.0
MSU Advantage
17-16-2 (51.5%)
Margin: 10.5 ATS +/-: +1.5
⚖️ Over/Under
UCLA
17-19-0
O: 47.2% / U: 52.8% Total +/-: +2.5
MSU
16-19-0
O: 45.7% / U: 54.3% Total +/-: +1.5
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
MSU
UCLA
MSU
UCLA
ML
71% 25-10
67% 24-12
61% 20-13
76% 25-8
ATS
71% 25-10
61% 22-14
61% 20-13
76% 25-8
TTL
49% 17-18
61% 22-14
100% 33-0
100% 33-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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