Home / NCAAB Projections NCAAB / Jaguars @ Tigers SOU @ TXSO

SOUTHERN

JAGUARSSOU

12-13  |  Road

73
FINAL
Mon, Feb 16 • 8:00 PM ET
H&PE Arena
View Odds Details →

TEXAS SOUTHERN

TIGERSTXSO

8-15  |  Home

74
AI Model Win Probability
JAGUARS
0%
📊
TIGERS
100%
JAGUARS --
TIGERS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
144.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 100%
Under 0 0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-32.0
SOUTHERN
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +32.0 points (Southern)
JaguarsSOU (-3.5) 0 TigersTXSO (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Jaguars Cover

99.9%

Tigers Cover

0.1%

-30-20-100+10+20+30
Distribution centered around SOU -32.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (SOU)

SOU By 1-7 points

0.6%

SOU By 8-14 points

3.3%

TXSO By 1-7 points

0.1%

TXSO By 8-14 points

0.0%

AI Model Projected Score
88
SOUTHERN
56
TEXAS SOUTHERN
Simulated Score
70
SOUTHERN
72
TEXAS SOUTHERN
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Jaguars Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Tigers Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI Jaguars (+3.5) Win
Proj Spread: -32.0
D
Sim Tigers (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -2.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI u152.5 Win
Proj Total: 144.0
D
Sim u152.5 Win
Proj Total: 142.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Feb 16, 2026 SOU @ TXSO 73 - 74
Jan 3, 2026 TXSO @ SOU 73 - 84
Feb 17, 2025 TXSO @ SOU 57 - 66
Jan 4, 2025 SOU @ TXSO 67 - 58
Feb 19, 2024 SOU @ TXSO 56 - 68
Key Model Drivers
Blocks (L5) +52.0% more
Southern: 4.4 vs Texas Southern: 2.1
Steals (L5) +23.0% more
Southern: 8.2 vs Texas Southern: 6.3
Assists (L5) +21.5% more
Southern: 15.4 vs Texas Southern: 12.1
Free Throw % (L5) +1.8%
Southern: 74.3% vs Texas Southern: 72.5%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
SOU Score 88.0 73
TXSO Score 56.0 74
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 38.6 / 28.0 37.0 / 42.0
Assists 12.1 / 15.4 11.0 / 9.0
Blocks 2.1 / 4.4 4.0 / 1.0
Field Goal % 47.3 / 45.5 47.0 / 41.0
Free Throw % 72.5 / 74.3 79.0 / 68.0
Rebounding 34.6 / 36.0 37.0 / 36.0
Steals 6.3 / 8.2 11.0 / 5.0
Turnovers 13.1 / 10.2 16.0 / 12.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
80%TICKETS20%
72%MONEY28%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
63%TICKETS37%
49%MONEY51%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
32%TICKETS68%
51%MONEY49%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
SOU Advantage
17-17-0 (50.0%)
Margin: 1.7 ATS +/-: -1.6
TXSO
12-18-0 (40.0%)
Margin: -2.9 ATS +/-: -0.4
🎯 ATS (Spread)
SOU Advantage
13-18-0 (41.9%)
Margin: 1.7 ATS +/-: -1.6
TXSO
9-19-0 (32.1%)
Margin: -2.9 ATS +/-: -0.4
⚖️ Over/Under
SOU
20-11-0
O: 64.5% / U: 35.5% Total +/-: +4.7
TXSO
14-14-0
O: 50.0% / U: 50.0% Total +/-: +3.3
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
TXSO
SOU
TXSO
SOU
ML
64% 18-10
67% 22-11
71% 17-7
70% 21-9
ATS
61% 17-11
64% 21-12
71% 17-7
70% 21-9
TTL
71% 20-8
42% 14-19
100% 24-0
100% 30-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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