Home / NCAAB Projections NCAAB / Raiders @ Terriers COLG @ BU

COLGATE

RAIDERSCOLG

16-11  |  Road

58
FINAL
Mon, Feb 16 • 6:00 PM ET
Case Gym
View Odds Details →

BOSTON UNIVERSITY

TERRIERSBU

12-15  |  Home

85
AI Model Win Probability
RAIDERS
0%
📊
TERRIERS
100%
RAIDERS --
TERRIERS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
149.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-9.0
COLGATE
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +9.0 points (Colgate)
RaidersCOLG (-3.5) 0 TerriersBU (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Raiders Cover

81.6%

Terriers Cover

18.4%

-30-20-100+10+20+30
Distribution centered around COLG -9.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (COLG)

COLG By 1-7 points

24.3%

COLG By 8-14 points

26.8%

BU By 1-7 points

12.2%

BU By 8-14 points

4.0%

AI Model Projected Score
79
COLGATE
70
BOSTON UNIVERSITY
Simulated Score
70
COLGATE
65
BOSTON UNIVERSITY
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Raiders Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Raiders Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Raiders (+2.5) Loss
Proj Spread: -9.0
D
Sim Raiders (-0) Loss
Proj Spread: -5.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o143.5 Loss
Proj Total: 149.0
D
Sim u143.5 Win
Proj Total: 135.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Feb 16, 2026 COLG @ BU 58 - 85
Jan 24, 2026 BU @ COLG 79 - 80
Feb 15, 2025 COLG @ BU 91 - 93
Jan 11, 2025 BU @ COLG 50 - 87
Feb 7, 2024 COLG @ BU 74 - 64
Key Model Drivers
Steals (L5) +37.8% more
Colgate: 7.7 vs Boston University: 4.8
Assists (L5) +32.5% more
Boston University: 15.8 vs Colgate: 11.9
Turnovers (L5) +9.5% more
Boston University: 11.9 vs Colgate: 10.9
Free Throw % (L5) +6.7%
Boston University: 78.5% vs Colgate: 71.8%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
COLG Score 79.0 58
BU Score 70.0 85
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 43.4 / 37.5 60.0 / 43.0
Assists 15.8 / 11.9 22.0 / 11.0
Blocks 2.6 / 2.8 5.0 / 2.0
Field Goal % 50.3 / 46.9 53.0 / 34.0
Free Throw % 78.5 / 71.8 63.0 / 90.0
Rebounding 37.1 / 34.6 38.0 / 29.0
Steals 4.8 / 7.7 3.0 / 2.0
Turnovers 11.9 / 10.9 7.0 / 6.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
70%TICKETS30%
81%MONEY19%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
63%TICKETS37%
72%MONEY28%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
53%TICKETS47%
86%MONEY14%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
COLG Advantage
18-15-0 (54.6%)
Margin: 1.8 ATS +/-: -1.5
BU
17-17-0 (50.0%)
Margin: 1.5 ATS +/-: +0.2
🎯 ATS (Spread)
COLG
12-19-0 (38.7%)
Margin: 1.8 ATS +/-: -1.5
BU Advantage
18-14-0 (56.3%)
Margin: 1.5 ATS +/-: +0.2
⚖️ Over/Under
COLG
17-14-0
O: 54.8% / U: 45.2% Total +/-: +4.9
BU
18-14-0
O: 56.3% / U: 43.8% Total +/-: +8.4
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
BU
COLG
BU
COLG
ML
68% 23-11
59% 19-13
62% 21-13
69% 22-10
ATS
62% 21-13
72% 23-9
62% 21-13
70% 23-10
TTL
65% 22-12
78% 25-7
100% 34-0
100% 33-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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