Home / NCAAB Projections NCAAB / Colonels @ Lions EKU @ UNA

EASTERN KENTUCKY

COLONELSEKU

9-17  |  Road

78
FINAL
Sun, Feb 15 • 4:00 PM ET
Flowers Hall
View Odds Details →

NORTH ALABAMA

LIONSUNA

7-17  |  Home

84
AI Model Win Probability
COLONELS
100%
📊
LIONS
0%
COLONELS --
LIONS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
176.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-34.0
NORTH ALABAMA
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +34.0 points (North Alabama)
ColonelsEKU (-3.5) 0 LionsUNA (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Colonels Cover

0.0%

Lions Cover

100.0%

+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around UNA -34.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (UNA)

EKU By 1-7 points

0.0%

EKU By 8-14 points

0.0%

UNA By 1-7 points

0.4%

UNA By 8-14 points

2.2%

AI Model Projected Score
71
EASTERN KENTUCKY
105
NORTH ALABAMA
Simulated Score
70
EASTERN KENTUCKY
76
NORTH ALABAMA
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Lions Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Lions Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Lions (+4.5) Win
Proj Spread: -34.0
D
Sim Lions (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -6.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o149.5 Win
Proj Total: 176.0
D
Sim u149.5 Win
Proj Total: 146.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Feb 15, 2026 EKU @ UNA 78 - 84
Jan 8, 2026 UNA @ EKU 80 - 88
Jan 4, 2025 EKU @ UNA 67 - 88
Feb 22, 2024 UNA @ EKU 72 - 75
Jan 13, 2024 EKU @ UNA 81 - 72
Key Model Drivers
Field Goal % (L5) +2.2%
North Alabama: 46.1% vs Eastern Kentucky: 43.8%
Assists (L5) +28.9% more
Eastern Kentucky: 13.9 vs North Alabama: 9.9
Steals (L5) +20.6% more
Eastern Kentucky: 7.8 vs North Alabama: 6.2
Rebounding (L5) +14.5% more
Eastern Kentucky: 35.8 vs North Alabama: 30.6
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
EKU Score 71.0 78
UNA Score 105.0 84
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 32.2 / 32.9 35.0 / 20.0
Assists 9.9 / 13.9 10.0 / 11.0
Blocks 2.9 / 3.3 2.0 / 1.0
Field Goal % 46.1 / 43.8 46.0 / 40.0
Free Throw % 69.7 / 68.9 67.0 / 58.0
Rebounding 30.6 / 35.8 49.0 / 33.0
Steals 6.2 / 7.8 4.0 / 9.0
Turnovers 12.2 / 11.6 15.0 / 8.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
86%TICKETS14%
80%MONEY20%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
63%TICKETS37%
52%MONEY48%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
55%TICKETS45%
74%MONEY26%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
EKU Advantage
11-21-0 (34.4%)
Margin: -1.6 ATS +/-: -3.7
UNA
9-21-0 (30.0%)
Margin: -8.2 ATS +/-: -4.3
🎯 ATS (Spread)
EKU
10-19-1 (34.5%)
Margin: -1.6 ATS +/-: -3.7
UNA Advantage
10-17-1 (37.0%)
Margin: -8.2 ATS +/-: -4.3
⚖️ Over/Under
EKU
19-11-0
O: 63.3% / U: 36.7% Total +/-: +4.9
UNA
12-16-0
O: 42.9% / U: 57.1% Total +/-: -0.4
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
UNA
EKU
UNA
EKU
ML
43% 13-17
44% 14-18
57% 16-12
69% 22-10
ATS
60% 18-12
56% 18-14
57% 16-12
69% 22-10
TTL
63% 19-11
53% 17-15
100% 28-0
100% 32-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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