TOWSON
TIGERSTOW
14-12 | Road
71
MONMOUTH
HAWKSMONM
13-12 | Home
72
AI Model Win Probability
TIGERS
0%
HAWKS
100%
TIGERS
--
HAWKS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
180.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
0%
Under 0
100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-22.0
TOWSON
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +22.0 points (Towson)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
-30-20-100+10+20+30
Distribution centered around TOW -22.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (TOW)
TOW By 1-7 points
5.8%
TOW By 8-14 points
15.3%
MONM By 1-7 points
1.1%
MONM By 8-14 points
0.1%
AI Model Projected Score
Towson
101
TOWSON
Monmouth
79
MONMOUTH
Simulated Score
Towson
71
TOWSON
Monmouth
68
MONMOUTH
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI
Tigers
Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Tigers
Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Tigers (-1.5)
Loss
Proj Spread: -22.0
D
Sim
Tigers (-0)
Loss
Proj Spread: -3.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o137.5
Win
Proj Total: 180.0
D
Sim
u137.5
Win
Proj Total: 139.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Feb 15, 2026
TOW @ MONM
71 - 72
Jan 3, 2026
MONM @ TOW
62 - 48
Feb 15, 2025
MONM @ TOW
54 - 80
Feb 8, 2025
TOW @ MONM
73 - 67
Feb 22, 2024
MONM @ TOW
61 - 80
Key Model Drivers
Rebounding (L5)
+13.6% more
Towson: 39.9
vs
Monmouth: 34.5
Steals (L5)
+100.2% more
Monmouth: 9.9
vs
Towson: 4.9
Assists (L5)
+44.7% more
Monmouth: 14.9
vs
Towson: 10.3
Free Throw % (L5)
+9.2%
Monmouth: 76.3%
vs
Towson: 67.1%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
TOW Score
101.0
71
MONM Score
79.0
72
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal %
36.2 / 31.5
39.0 / 43.0
Assists
14.9 / 10.3
13.0 / 9.0
Blocks
3.1 / 3.1
2.0 / 3.0
Field Goal %
43.9 / 41.4
36.0 / 51.0
Free Throw %
76.3 / 67.1
61.0 / 44.0
Rebounding
34.5 / 39.9
39.0 / 40.0
Steals
9.9 / 4.9
9.0 / 3.0
Turnovers
10.1 / 9.2
7.0 / 16.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
TOW
19-15-0
(55.9%)
Margin: 3.1
ATS +/-: -0.8
MONM
19-15-0
(55.9%)
Margin: 1.8
ATS +/-: +1.9
🎯 ATS (Spread)
TOW
14-17-1
(45.2%)
Margin: 3.1
ATS +/-: -0.8
MONM
Advantage
17-15-1
(53.1%)
Margin: 1.8
ATS +/-: +1.9
⚖️ Over/Under
TOW
11-21-0
O: 34.4% / U: 65.6%
Total +/-: -5.5
MONM
16-17-0
O: 48.5% / U: 51.5%
Total +/-: +0.1
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
MONM
TOW
MONM
TOW
ML
62%
21-13
66%
21-11
64%
21-12
62%
20-12
ATS
62%
21-13
66%
21-11
64%
21-12
62%
20-12
TTL
59%
20-14
53%
17-15
100%
33-0
100%
32-0
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