BELMONT
BRUINSBEL
23-4 | Road
87
MURRAY STATE
RACERSMUR
19-8 | Home
70
AI Model Win Probability
BRUINS
100%
RACERS
0%
BRUINS
--
RACERS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
172.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
0%
Under 0
100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-10.0
MURRAY STATE
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +10.0 points (Murray State)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around MUR -10.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (MUR)
BEL By 1-7 points
10.7%
BEL By 8-14 points
3.3%
MUR By 1-7 points
23.0%
MUR By 8-14 points
27.2%
AI Model Projected Score
Belmont
81
BELMONT
Murray State
91
MURRAY STATE
Simulated Score
Belmont
72
BELMONT
Murray State
75
MURRAY STATE
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI
Racers
Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Racers
Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Racers (+1.5)
Loss
Proj Spread: -10.0
D
Sim
Racers (+0)
Loss
Proj Spread: -3.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o165.5
Loss
Proj Total: 172.0
D
Sim
u165.5
Win
Proj Total: 147.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Feb 15, 2026
BEL @ MUR
87 - 70
Jan 31, 2026
MUR @ BEL
86 - 103
Mar 2, 2025
MUR @ BEL
60 - 70
Jan 25, 2025
BEL @ MUR
95 - 77
Feb 28, 2024
BEL @ MUR
83 - 61
Key Model Drivers
Blocks (L5)
+29.9% more
Murray State: 4.2
vs
Belmont: 3.2
Steals (L5)
+9.7% more
Murray State: 5.6
vs
Belmont: 5.1
Free Throw % (L5)
+2.7%
Murray State: 74.1%
vs
Belmont: 71.4%
Assists (L5)
+43.9% more
Belmont: 19.3
vs
Murray State: 10.8
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
BEL Score
81.0
87
MUR Score
91.0
70
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal %
30.9 / 42.2
34.0 / 45.0
Assists
10.8 / 19.3
9.0 / 17.0
Blocks
4.2 / 3.2
4.0 / 2.0
Field Goal %
46.9 / 52.3
38.0 / 52.0
Free Throw %
74.1 / 71.4
62.0 / 85.0
Rebounding
33.6 / 32.4
35.0 / 34.0
Steals
5.6 / 5.1
8.0 / 8.0
Turnovers
12.6 / 12.7
15.0 / 13.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
BEL
Advantage
26-6-0
(81.3%)
Margin: 10.5
ATS +/-: +2.2
MUR
20-13-0
(60.6%)
Margin: 2.9
ATS +/-: -2.3
🎯 ATS (Spread)
BEL
Advantage
17-13-1
(56.7%)
Margin: 10.5
ATS +/-: +2.2
MUR
14-19-0
(42.4%)
Margin: 2.9
ATS +/-: -2.3
⚖️ Over/Under
BEL
19-12-0
O: 61.3% / U: 38.7%
Total +/-: +4.1
MUR
19-14-0
O: 57.6% / U: 42.4%
Total +/-: +4.8
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
MUR
BEL
MUR
BEL
ML
58%
19-14
47%
15-17
61%
20-13
62%
20-12
ATS
52%
17-16
56%
18-14
61%
20-13
62%
20-12
TTL
70%
23-10
44%
14-18
100%
33-0
100%
32-0
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