Home / NCAAB Projections NCAAB / Sycamores @ Beacons INST @ VAL

INDIANA STATE

SYCAMORESINST

10-16  |  Road

75
FINAL
Sun, Feb 15 • 2:00 PM ET
Athletics-Recreation Center
View Odds Details →

VALPARAISO

BEACONSVAL

13-13  |  Home

76
AI Model Win Probability
SYCAMORES
100%
📊
BEACONS
0%
SYCAMORES --
BEACONS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
153.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-23.0
VALPARAISO
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +23.0 points (Valparaiso)
SycamoresINST (-3.5) 0 BeaconsVAL (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Sycamores Cover

1.1%

Beacons Cover

98.9%

+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around VAL -23.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (VAL)

INST By 1-7 points

0.8%

INST By 8-14 points

0.1%

VAL By 1-7 points

4.8%

VAL By 8-14 points

13.7%

AI Model Projected Score
65
INDIANA STATE
88
VALPARAISO
Simulated Score
75
INDIANA STATE
68
VALPARAISO
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Beacons Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Sycamores Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI Beacons (-4.5) Win
Proj Spread: -23.0
D
Sim Sycamores (-0) Loss
Proj Spread: -7.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o144.5 Win
Proj Total: 153.0
D
Sim u144.5 Win
Proj Total: 143.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Mar 5, 2026 INST @ VAL 62 - 63
Feb 15, 2026 INST @ VAL 75 - 76
Jan 31, 2026 VAL @ INST 76 - 72
Feb 5, 2025 VAL @ INST 62 - 80
Jan 8, 2025 INST @ VAL 95 - 98
Key Model Drivers
Rebounding (L5) +13.3% more
Valparaiso: 36.9 vs Indiana State: 32.6
Free Throw % (L5) +7.8%
Valparaiso: 68.1% vs Indiana State: 60.3%
Assists (L5) +48.6% more
Indiana State: 18.7 vs Valparaiso: 9.6
Turnovers (L5) +26.7% more
Indiana State: 14.0 vs Valparaiso: 10.3
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
INST Score 65.0 75
VAL Score 88.0 76
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 35.8 / 35.5 42.0 / 27.0
Assists 9.6 / 18.7 16.0 / 17.0
Blocks 3.4 / 3.6 4.0 / 3.0
Field Goal % 42.4 / 46.4 52.0 / 54.0
Free Throw % 68.1 / 60.3 48.0 / 69.0
Rebounding 36.9 / 32.6 32.0 / 28.0
Steals 5.9 / 6.6 2.0 / 2.0
Turnovers 10.3 / 14.0 9.0 / 8.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
7%TICKETS93%
12%MONEY88%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
47%TICKETS53%
29%MONEY71%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
63%TICKETS37%
60%MONEY40%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
INST
11-21-0 (34.4%)
Margin: -0.9 ATS +/-: +0.5
VAL Advantage
18-15-0 (54.6%)
Margin: 0.5 ATS +/-: +2.7
🎯 ATS (Spread)
INST Advantage
17-12-1 (58.6%)
Margin: -0.9 ATS +/-: +0.5
VAL
18-13-1 (58.1%)
Margin: 0.5 ATS +/-: +2.7
⚖️ Over/Under
INST
13-17-0
O: 43.3% / U: 56.7% Total +/-: -3.9
VAL
17-15-0
O: 53.1% / U: 46.9% Total +/-: -0.9
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
VAL
INST
VAL
INST
ML
48% 16-17
66% 21-11
61% 20-13
53% 17-15
ATS
52% 17-16
62% 20-12
61% 20-13
53% 17-15
TTL
61% 20-13
53% 17-15
100% 33-0
100% 32-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
Contextual Game News
Shockers Stumble in Charity Exhibition Against Murray State, 93-…
thesunflower 44 minutes ago
Mountain West Media Days: Eric Olen Earns High Praise from Rival…
yahoo 19 hours, 52 minutes ago
Houston Cougars Set for Road Test Against Kansas State in Big 12…
si 1 day, 6 hours ago
Kansas Shakes Up Offensive Line: Amir Herring Promoted to Starti…
si 2 days, 6 hours ago
Oregon Ducks vs. UCLA Bruins: Unbeaten Bruins Invade Autzen as C…
si 2 days, 6 hours ago