Home / NCAAB Projections NCAAB / Roadrunners @ 49ers UTSA @ CLT

UTSA

ROADRUNNERSUTSA

4-20  |  Road

88
FINAL
Sun, Feb 15 • 12:00 PM ET
Halton Arena
View Odds Details →

CHARLOTTE

49ERSCLT

13-11  |  Home

79
AI Model Win Probability
ROADRUNNERS
100%
📊
49ERS
0%
ROADRUNNERS --
49ERS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
191.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-3.0
CHARLOTTE
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +3.0 points (Charlotte)
RoadrunnersUTSA (-3.5) 0 49ersCLT (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Roadrunners Cover

38.2%

49ers Cover

61.8%

+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around CLT -3.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (CLT)

UTSA By 1-7 points

21.6%

UTSA By 8-14 points

10.7%

CLT By 1-7 points

27.2%

CLT By 8-14 points

20.1%

AI Model Projected Score
94
UTSA
97
CHARLOTTE
Simulated Score
65
UTSA
72
CHARLOTTE
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI 49ers Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim 49ers Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI 49ers (+14.5) Win
Proj Spread: -3.0
D
Sim 49ers (+0) Loss
Proj Spread: -7.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o148.5 Win
Proj Total: 191.0
D
Sim u148.5 Win
Proj Total: 137.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Feb 15, 2026 UTSA @ CLT 88 - 79
Jan 7, 2026 CLT @ UTSA 74 - 58
Mar 9, 2025 UTSA @ CLT 83 - 80
Feb 15, 2024 UTSA @ CLT 70 - 79
Jan 13, 2024 CLT @ UTSA 66 - 58
Key Model Drivers
Turnovers (L5) +9.1% more
Charlotte: 13.9 vs UTSA: 12.7
3pt Field Goal % (L5) +3.7%
Charlotte: 33.2% vs UTSA: 29.5%
Free Throw % (L5) +3.0%
Charlotte: 67.4% vs UTSA: 64.4%
Field Goal % (L5) +2.1%
Charlotte: 43.8% vs UTSA: 41.7%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
UTSA Score 94.0 88
CLT Score 97.0 79
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 33.2 / 29.5 42.0 / 35.0
Assists 9.8 / 11.5 15.0 / 10.0
Blocks 2.9 / 4.4 5.0 / 2.0
Field Goal % 43.8 / 41.7 51.0 / 48.0
Free Throw % 67.4 / 64.4 54.0 / 90.0
Rebounding 32.8 / 34.8 32.0 / 30.0
Steals 4.2 / 5.6 2.0 / 7.0
Turnovers 13.9 / 12.7 13.0 / 3.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
5%TICKETS95%
11%MONEY89%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
42%TICKETS58%
28%MONEY72%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
49%TICKETS51%
55%MONEY45%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
UTSA
5-25-0 (16.7%)
Margin: -11.3 ATS +/-: -3.9
CLT Advantage
17-17-0 (50.0%)
Margin: -1.1 ATS +/-: +0.8
🎯 ATS (Spread)
UTSA
10-18-0 (35.7%)
Margin: -11.3 ATS +/-: -3.9
CLT Advantage
18-15-0 (54.6%)
Margin: -1.1 ATS +/-: +0.8
⚖️ Over/Under
UTSA
14-14-0
O: 50.0% / U: 50.0% Total +/-: -1.2
CLT
19-13-1
O: 59.4% / U: 40.6% Total +/-: +3.7
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
CLT
UTSA
CLT
UTSA
ML
62% 21-13
83% 24-5
67% 22-11
48% 14-15
ATS
68% 23-11
72% 21-8
67% 22-11
50% 15-15
TTL
65% 22-12
66% 19-10
100% 33-0
100% 30-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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