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INDIANA

HOOSIERSIU

17-8  |  Road

51
FINAL
Sun, Feb 15 • 1:00 PM ET
State Farm Center
View Odds Details →

ILLINOIS

FIGHTING ILLINIILL

20-5  |  Home

71
AI Model Win Probability
HOOSIERS
0%
📊
FIGHTING ILLINI
100%
HOOSIERS --
FIGHTING ILLINI --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
184.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
+6.0
ILLINOIS
Book Spread
--
Book Line
HoosiersIU (-3.5) 0 Fighting IlliniILL (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Hoosiers Cover

27.4%

Fighting Illini Cover

72.6%

-30-20-100+10+20+30
Distribution centered around ILL +6.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (ILL)

IU By 1-7 points

26.8%

IU By 8-14 points

24.3%

ILL By 1-7 points

16.9%

ILL By 8-14 points

6.8%

AI Model Projected Score
95
INDIANA
89
ILLINOIS
Simulated Score
75
INDIANA
78
ILLINOIS
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Hoosiers Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Fighting Illini Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Fighting Illini (+8.5) Win
Proj Spread: +6.0
D
Sim Fighting Illini (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -3.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o151.5 Loss
Proj Total: 184.0
D
Sim u151.5 Win
Proj Total: 153.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Feb 15, 2026 IU @ ILL 51 - 71
Jan 14, 2025 ILL @ IU 94 - 69
Jan 27, 2024 IU @ ILL 62 - 70
Feb 18, 2023 ILL @ IU 68 - 71
Jan 19, 2023 IU @ ILL 80 - 65
Key Model Drivers
Steals (L5) +22.3% more
Indiana: 2.8 vs Illinois: 2.2
Assists (L5) +18.7% more
Indiana: 18.4 vs Illinois: 15.0
Free Throw % (L5) +9.6%
Indiana: 81.6% vs Illinois: 72.0%
Field Goal % (L5) +3.6%
Indiana: 49.8% vs Illinois: 46.2%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
IU Score 95.0 51
ILL Score 89.0 71
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 38.3 / 33.3 23.0 / 25.0
Assists 15.0 / 18.4 11.0 / 10.0
Blocks 4.8 / 3.9 2.0 / 1.0
Field Goal % 46.2 / 49.8 44.0 / 41.0
Free Throw % 72.0 / 81.6 86.0 / 83.0
Rebounding 39.9 / 31.6 38.0 / 25.0
Steals 2.2 / 2.8 7.0 / 1.0
Turnovers 9.2 / 9.0 2.0 / 9.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
11%TICKETS89%
33%MONEY67%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
41%TICKETS59%
35%MONEY65%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
63%TICKETS37%
65%MONEY35%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
IU
18-14-0 (56.3%)
Margin: 6.0 ATS +/-: -1.8
ILL Advantage
28-9-0 (75.7%)
Margin: 14.5 ATS +/-: +2.9
🎯 ATS (Spread)
IU
14-18-0 (43.8%)
Margin: 6.0 ATS +/-: -1.8
ILL Advantage
22-15-0 (59.5%)
Margin: 14.5 ATS +/-: +2.9
⚖️ Over/Under
IU
14-18-0
O: 43.8% / U: 56.3% Total +/-: -0.7
ILL
15-22-0
O: 40.5% / U: 59.5% Total +/-: -1.4
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
ILL
IU
ILL
IU
ML
65% 24-13
66% 21-11
57% 20-15
71% 22-9
ATS
70% 26-11
53% 17-15
57% 20-15
71% 22-9
TTL
57% 21-16
56% 18-14
100% 35-0
100% 31-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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