Home / NCAAB Projections NCAAB / Knights @ Governors BELL @ APSU

BELLARMINE

KNIGHTSBELL

11-14  |  Road

70
FINAL
Sat, Feb 14 • 5:30 PM ET
F&M Bank Arena
View Odds Details →

AUSTIN PEAY

GOVERNORSAPSU

18-6  |  Home

90
AI Model Win Probability
KNIGHTS
0%
📊
GOVERNORS
100%
KNIGHTS --
GOVERNORS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
151.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 100%
Under 0 0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-31.0
BELLARMINE
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +31.0 points (Bellarmine)
KnightsBELL (-3.5) 0 GovernorsAPSU (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Knights Cover

99.9%

Governors Cover

0.1%

-30-20-100+10+20+30
Distribution centered around BELL -31.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (BELL)

BELL By 1-7 points

0.8%

BELL By 8-14 points

4.0%

APSU By 1-7 points

0.1%

APSU By 8-14 points

0.0%

AI Model Projected Score
91
BELLARMINE
60
AUSTIN PEAY
Simulated Score
70
BELLARMINE
75
AUSTIN PEAY
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Knights Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Governors Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI Knights (-9.5) Loss
Proj Spread: -31.0
D
Sim Governors (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -5.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI u153.5 Loss
Proj Total: 151.0
D
Sim u153.5 Win
Proj Total: 145.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Feb 28, 2026 APSU @ BELL 97 - 111
Feb 14, 2026 BELL @ APSU 70 - 90
Feb 18, 2025 APSU @ BELL 68 - 94
Jan 30, 2025 BELL @ APSU 77 - 86
Mar 1, 2024 BELL @ APSU 87 - 90
Key Model Drivers
Assists (L5) +21.5% more
Bellarmine: 18.6 vs Austin Peay: 14.6
Free Throw % (L5) +9.3%
Bellarmine: 85.0% vs Austin Peay: 75.8%
3pt Field Goal % (L5) +3.0%
Bellarmine: 46.7% vs Austin Peay: 43.7%
Blocks (L5) +80.4% more
Austin Peay: 2.9 vs Bellarmine: 1.6
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
BELL Score 91.0 70
APSU Score 60.0 90
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 43.7 / 46.7 53.0 / 45.0
Assists 14.6 / 18.6 22.0 / 12.0
Blocks 2.9 / 1.6 5.0 / 5.0
Field Goal % 55.1 / 54.3 58.0 / 45.0
Free Throw % 75.8 / 85.0 86.0 / 92.0
Rebounding 33.6 / 27.8 31.0 / 21.0
Steals 7.1 / 5.2 4.0 / 3.0
Turnovers 10.3 / 10.8 10.0 / 6.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
1%TICKETS99%
4%MONEY96%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
31%TICKETS69%
34%MONEY66%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
59%TICKETS41%
71%MONEY29%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
BELL
13-19-0 (40.6%)
Margin: -1.7 ATS +/-: +1.7
APSU Advantage
22-9-0 (71.0%)
Margin: 8.4 ATS +/-: +1.3
🎯 ATS (Spread)
BELL Advantage
17-12-1 (58.6%)
Margin: -1.7 ATS +/-: +1.7
APSU
14-14-1 (50.0%)
Margin: 8.4 ATS +/-: +1.3
⚖️ Over/Under
BELL
20-10-0
O: 66.7% / U: 33.3% Total +/-: +9.2
APSU
14-15-0
O: 48.3% / U: 51.7% Total +/-: +2.2
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
APSU
BELL
APSU
BELL
ML
53% 16-14
72% 23-9
59% 16-11
94% 29-2
ATS
57% 17-13
72% 23-9
59% 16-11
94% 29-2
TTL
57% 17-13
50% 16-16
100% 27-0
100% 31-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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