Home / NCAAB Projections NCAAB / Tigers @ Tigers GRAM @ TXSO

GRAMBLING

TIGERSGRAM

11-12  |  Road

79
FINAL
Sat, Feb 14 • 5:30 PM ET
H&PE Arena
View Odds Details →

TEXAS SOUTHERN

TIGERSTXSO

7-15  |  Home

82
AI Model Win Probability
TIGERS
100%
📊
TIGERS
0%
TIGERS --
TIGERS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
157.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-29.0
TEXAS SOUTHERN
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +29.0 points (Texas Southern)
TigersGRAM (-3.5) 0 TigersTXSO (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Tigers Cover

0.2%

Tigers Cover

99.8%

+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around TXSO -29.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (TXSO)

GRAM By 1-7 points

0.1%

GRAM By 8-14 points

0.0%

TXSO By 1-7 points

1.4%

TXSO By 8-14 points

5.8%

AI Model Projected Score
64
GRAMBLING
93
TEXAS SOUTHERN
Simulated Score
70
GRAMBLING
72
TEXAS SOUTHERN
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Tigers Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Tigers Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Tigers (-1.5) Win
Proj Spread: -29.0
D
Sim Tigers (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -2.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o140.5 Win
Proj Total: 157.0
D
Sim u140.5 Win
Proj Total: 142.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Feb 14, 2026 GRAM @ TXSO 79 - 82
Jan 5, 2026 TXSO @ GRAM 67 - 84
Feb 15, 2025 TXSO @ GRAM 67 - 60
Jan 6, 2025 GRAM @ TXSO 66 - 71
Mar 16, 2024 TXSO @ GRAM 66 - 75
Key Model Drivers
3pt Field Goal % (L5) +9.4%
Texas Southern: 33.8% vs Grambling: 24.4%
Field Goal % (L5) +6.4%
Texas Southern: 43.0% vs Grambling: 36.6%
Blocks (L5) +28.6% more
Grambling: 3.7 vs Texas Southern: 2.7
Assists (L5) +25.8% more
Grambling: 11.7 vs Texas Southern: 8.6
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
GRAM Score 64.0 79
TXSO Score 93.0 82
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 33.8 / 24.4 48.0 / 32.0
Assists 8.6 / 11.7 19.0 / 11.0
Blocks 2.7 / 3.7 1.0 / 0.0
Field Goal % 43.0 / 36.6 56.0 / 50.0
Free Throw % 75.2 / 78.3 67.0 / 70.0
Rebounding 36.9 / 36.7 30.0 / 27.0
Steals 7.0 / 6.9 5.0 / 8.0
Turnovers 12.1 / 12.8 15.0 / 13.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
59%TICKETS41%
54%MONEY46%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
52%TICKETS48%
61%MONEY39%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
47%TICKETS53%
28%MONEY72%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
GRAM Advantage
14-19-0 (42.4%)
Margin: 0.2 ATS +/-: -1.0
TXSO
12-18-0 (40.0%)
Margin: -2.9 ATS +/-: -0.4
🎯 ATS (Spread)
GRAM Advantage
15-16-0 (48.4%)
Margin: 0.2 ATS +/-: -1.0
TXSO
9-19-0 (32.1%)
Margin: -2.9 ATS +/-: -0.4
⚖️ Over/Under
GRAM
10-21-0
O: 32.3% / U: 67.7% Total +/-: -4.0
TXSO
14-14-0
O: 50.0% / U: 50.0% Total +/-: +3.3
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
TXSO
GRAM
TXSO
GRAM
ML
64% 18-10
68% 21-10
71% 17-7
68% 17-8
ATS
61% 17-11
61% 19-12
71% 17-7
68% 17-8
TTL
71% 20-8
58% 18-13
100% 24-0
100% 25-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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