WAGNER
SEAHAWKSWAG
8-15 | Road
68
STONEHILL
SKYHAWKSSTO
9-17 | Home
57
AI Model Win Probability
SEAHAWKS
0%
SKYHAWKS
100%
SEAHAWKS
--
SKYHAWKS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
207.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
0%
Under 0
100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
+1.0
STONEHILL
Book Spread
--
Book Line
Spread Distribution
AI Model
-30-20-100+10+20+30
Distribution centered around STO +1.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (STO)
WAG By 1-7 points
26.2%
WAG By 8-14 points
16.9%
STO By 1-7 points
24.3%
STO By 8-14 points
13.7%
AI Model Projected Score
Wagner
104
WAGNER
Stonehill
103
STONEHILL
Simulated Score
Wagner
65
WAGNER
Stonehill
68
STONEHILL
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI
Seahawks
Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Skyhawks
Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Skyhawks (+3)
Win
Proj Spread: +1.0
D
Sim
Skyhawks (+0)
Loss
Proj Spread: -3.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o129.5
Loss
Proj Total: 207.0
D
Sim
u129.5
Win
Proj Total: 133.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Feb 14, 2026
WAG @ STO
68 - 57
Jan 4, 2026
STO @ WAG
69 - 60
Feb 20, 2025
STO @ WAG
57 - 63
Jan 30, 2025
WAG @ STO
61 - 73
Feb 3, 2024
WAG @ STO
61 - 71
Key Model Drivers
Steals (L5)
+23.9% more
Wagner: 6.6
vs
Stonehill: 5.0
3pt Field Goal % (L5)
+3.6%
Wagner: 32.0%
vs
Stonehill: 28.5%
Field Goal % (L5)
+1.8%
Wagner: 41.7%
vs
Stonehill: 39.9%
Blocks (L5)
+135.7% more
Stonehill: 3.6
vs
Wagner: 1.5
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
WAG Score
104.0
68
STO Score
103.0
57
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal %
28.5 / 32.0
30.0 / 38.0
Assists
10.3 / 10.3
9.0 / 8.0
Blocks
3.6 / 1.5
2.0 / 4.0
Field Goal %
39.9 / 41.7
32.0 / 38.0
Free Throw %
75.4 / 67.2
77.0 / 78.0
Rebounding
30.2 / 32.1
34.0 / 47.0
Steals
5.0 / 6.6
6.0 / 8.0
Turnovers
12.8 / 12.6
14.0 / 9.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
WAG
Advantage
14-17-0
(45.2%)
Margin: -0.4
ATS +/-: +2.1
STO
12-21-0
(36.4%)
Margin: -2.2
ATS +/-: +0.5
🎯 ATS (Spread)
WAG
Advantage
16-12-0
(57.1%)
Margin: -0.4
ATS +/-: +2.1
STO
14-15-2
(48.3%)
Margin: -2.2
ATS +/-: +0.5
⚖️ Over/Under
WAG
15-13-0
O: 53.6% / U: 46.4%
Total +/-: +4.4
STO
11-20-0
O: 35.5% / U: 64.5%
Total +/-: -4.0
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
STO
WAG
STO
WAG
ML
45%
15-18
63%
19-11
70%
23-10
57%
17-13
ATS
39%
13-20
60%
18-12
70%
23-10
57%
17-13
TTL
55%
18-15
53%
16-14
100%
33-0
100%
30-0
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