Home / NCAAB Projections NCAAB / Tigers @ Aggies MEM @ USU

MEMPHIS

TIGERSMEM

12-12  |  Road

75
FINAL
Sat, Feb 14 • 8:00 PM ET
Dee Glen Smith Spectrum
View Odds Details →

UTAH STATE

AGGIESUSU

21-3  |  Home

99
AI Model Win Probability
TIGERS
100%
📊
AGGIES
0%
TIGERS --
AGGIES --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
151.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 100%
Under 0 0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-47.0
UTAH STATE
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +47.0 points (Utah State)
TigersMEM (-3.5) 0 AggiesUSU (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Tigers Cover

0.0%

Aggies Cover

100.0%

+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around USU -47.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (USU)

MEM By 1-7 points

0.0%

MEM By 8-14 points

0.0%

USU By 1-7 points

0.0%

USU By 8-14 points

0.1%

AI Model Projected Score
52
MEMPHIS
99
UTAH STATE
Simulated Score
72
MEMPHIS
78
UTAH STATE
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Aggies Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Aggies Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Aggies (-13.5) Win
Proj Spread: -47.0
D
Sim Aggies (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -6.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI u154.5 Loss
Proj Total: 151.0
D
Sim u154.5 Win
Proj Total: 150.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Feb 14, 2026 MEM @ USU 75 - 99
Key Model Drivers
Assists (L5) +33.1% more
Utah State: 17.7 vs Memphis: 13.3
Field Goal % (L5) +7.7%
Utah State: 52.6% vs Memphis: 44.9%
3pt Field Goal % (L5) +7.3%
Utah State: 39.0% vs Memphis: 31.7%
Blocks (L5) +42.3% more
Memphis: 4.8 vs Utah State: 2.8
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
MEM Score 52.0 75
USU Score 99.0 99
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 39.0 / 31.7 36.0 / 22.0
Assists 17.7 / 13.3 22.0 / 7.0
Blocks 2.8 / 4.8 3.0 / 2.0
Field Goal % 52.6 / 44.9 53.0 / 37.0
Free Throw % 72.2 / 79.5 75.0 / 79.0
Rebounding 34.4 / 35.9 35.0 / 39.0
Steals 6.8 / 9.2 7.0 / 6.0
Turnovers 10.5 / 13.8 9.0 / 12.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
8%TICKETS92%
69%MONEY31%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
48%TICKETS52%
43%MONEY57%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
47%TICKETS53%
68%MONEY32%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
MEM
13-19-0 (40.6%)
Margin: -1.5 ATS +/-: -2.9
USU Advantage
29-7-0 (80.6%)
Margin: 11.4 ATS +/-: +1.2
🎯 ATS (Spread)
MEM
14-18-0 (43.8%)
Margin: -1.5 ATS +/-: -2.9
USU Advantage
16-19-0 (45.7%)
Margin: 11.4 ATS +/-: +1.2
⚖️ Over/Under
MEM
16-16-0
O: 50.0% / U: 50.0% Total +/-: -0.8
USU
20-15-0
O: 57.1% / U: 42.9% Total +/-: +1.9
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
USU
MEM
USU
MEM
ML
49% 17-18
62% 20-12
66% 21-11
68% 21-10
ATS
74% 26-9
62% 20-12
67% 22-11
68% 21-10
TTL
51% 18-17
66% 21-11
100% 33-0
100% 31-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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