MIDDLE TENNESSEE
BLUE RAIDERSMTSU
12-12 | Road
80
WESTERN KENTUCKY
HILLTOPPERSWKU
13-11 | Home
82
AI Model Win Probability
BLUE RAIDERS
100%
HILLTOPPERS
0%
BLUE RAIDERS
--
HILLTOPPERS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
180.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
0%
Under 0
100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-6.0
WESTERN KENTUCKY
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +6.0 points (Western Kentucky)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around WKU -6.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (WKU)
MTSU By 1-7 points
16.9%
MTSU By 8-14 points
6.8%
WKU By 1-7 points
26.8%
WKU By 8-14 points
24.3%
AI Model Projected Score
Middle Tennessee
87
MIDDLE TENNESSEE
Western Kentucky
93
WESTERN KENTUCKY
Simulated Score
Middle Tennessee
72
MIDDLE TENNESSEE
Western Kentucky
78
WESTERN KENTUCKY
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI
Hilltoppers
Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Hilltoppers
Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Hilltoppers (-2.5)
Win
Proj Spread: -6.0
D
Sim
Hilltoppers (+0)
Win
Proj Spread: -6.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o144.5
Win
Proj Total: 180.0
D
Sim
u144.5
Win
Proj Total: 150.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Feb 14, 2026
MTSU @ WKU
80 - 82
Jan 31, 2026
WKU @ MTSU
65 - 60
Feb 15, 2025
MTSU @ WKU
87 - 77
Jan 18, 2025
WKU @ MTSU
57 - 71
Mar 15, 2024
MTSU @ WKU
54 - 85
Key Model Drivers
Rebounding (L5)
+12.5% more
Western Kentucky: 39.2
vs
Middle Tennessee: 34.8
Free Throw % (L5)
+11.6%
Western Kentucky: 82.5%
vs
Middle Tennessee: 70.9%
Blocks (L5)
+36.7% more
Middle Tennessee: 4.1
vs
Western Kentucky: 2.6
Turnovers (L5)
+20.6% more
Middle Tennessee: 11.5
vs
Western Kentucky: 9.1
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
MTSU Score
87.0
80
WKU Score
93.0
82
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal %
30.9 / 34.6
36.0 / 26.0
Assists
13.2 / 15.6
13.0 / 14.0
Blocks
2.6 / 4.1
0.0 / 4.0
Field Goal %
35.3 / 47.3
49.0 / 48.0
Free Throw %
82.5 / 70.9
88.0 / 69.0
Rebounding
39.2 / 34.8
29.0 / 35.0
Steals
6.9 / 6.4
5.0 / 6.0
Turnovers
9.1 / 11.5
14.0 / 12.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
MTSU
17-15-0
(53.1%)
Margin: 2.7
ATS +/-: +0.8
WKU
Advantage
18-14-0
(56.3%)
Margin: 3.2
ATS +/-: -0.8
🎯 ATS (Spread)
MTSU
13-16-0
(44.8%)
Margin: 2.7
ATS +/-: +0.8
WKU
Advantage
15-15-0
(50.0%)
Margin: 3.2
ATS +/-: -0.8
⚖️ Over/Under
MTSU
14-15-0
O: 48.3% / U: 51.7%
Total +/-: +1.7
WKU
15-15-0
O: 50.0% / U: 50.0%
Total +/-: +1.2
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
WKU
MTSU
WKU
MTSU
ML
56%
18-14
56%
18-14
66%
21-11
69%
22-10
ATS
53%
17-15
75%
24-8
66%
21-11
69%
22-10
TTL
56%
18-14
53%
17-15
100%
32-0
100%
32-0
