ELON
PHOENIXELON
13-13 | Road
81
WILLIAM & MARY
TRIBEW&M
16-9 | Home
78
AI Model Win Probability
PHOENIX
100%
TRIBE
0%
PHOENIX
--
TRIBE
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
173.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
0%
Under 0
100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-11.0
WILLIAM & MARY
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +11.0 points (William & Mary)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around W&M -11.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (W&M)
ELON By 1-7 points
9.3%
ELON By 8-14 points
2.7%
W&M By 1-7 points
21.6%
W&M By 8-14 points
27.4%
AI Model Projected Score
Elon
81
ELON
William & Mary
92
WILLIAM & MARY
Simulated Score
Elon
71
ELON
William & Mary
76
WILLIAM & MARY
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI
Tribe
Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Tribe
Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Tribe (-8)
Loss
Proj Spread: -11.0
D
Sim
Tribe (+0)
Loss
Proj Spread: -5.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o165.5
Loss
Proj Total: 173.0
D
Sim
u165.5
Win
Proj Total: 147.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Mar 7, 2026
ELON @ W&M
62 - 72
Feb 14, 2026
ELON @ W&M
81 - 78
Jan 29, 2026
W&M @ ELON
76 - 79
Feb 22, 2025
W&M @ ELON
79 - 70
Jan 9, 2025
ELON @ W&M
65 - 78
Key Model Drivers
Blocks (L5)
+85.1% more
William & Mary: 3.2
vs
Elon: 1.7
Assists (L5)
+68.5% more
William & Mary: 19.3
vs
Elon: 11.5
Steals (L5)
+19.1% more
William & Mary: 6.5
vs
Elon: 5.5
Field Goal % (L5)
+11.1%
William & Mary: 51.0%
vs
Elon: 39.9%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
ELON Score
81.0
81
W&M Score
92.0
78
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal %
37.5 / 28.5
25.0 / 44.0
Assists
19.3 / 11.5
13.0 / 16.0
Blocks
3.2 / 1.7
9.0 / 2.0
Field Goal %
51.0 / 39.9
47.0 / 44.0
Free Throw %
71.1 / 69.5
72.0 / 73.0
Rebounding
34.5 / 36.5
39.0 / 31.0
Steals
6.5 / 5.5
4.0 / 9.0
Turnovers
10.3 / 10.0
11.0 / 6.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Public splits unavailable
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Public splits unavailable
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Public splits unavailable
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
ELON
14-18-0
(43.8%)
Margin: 0.3
ATS +/-: -1.1
W&M
Advantage
20-12-0
(62.5%)
Margin: 5.4
ATS +/-: +0.8
🎯 ATS (Spread)
ELON
11-19-0
(36.7%)
Margin: 0.3
ATS +/-: -1.1
W&M
Advantage
16-14-0
(53.3%)
Margin: 5.4
ATS +/-: +0.8
⚖️ Over/Under
ELON
16-14-0
O: 53.3% / U: 46.7%
Total +/-: +1.9
W&M
14-15-1
O: 48.3% / U: 51.7%
Total +/-: -1.8
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
W&M
ELON
W&M
ELON
ML
55%
17-14
61%
19-12
61%
19-12
71%
22-9
ATS
63%
19-11-1
55%
17-14
61%
19-12
71%
22-9
TTL
61%
19-12
52%
16-15
100%
31-0
100%
31-0
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