Home / NCAAB Projections NCAAB / Bison @ Fighting Hawks NDSU @ UND

NORTH DAKOTA STATE

BISONNDSU

20-6  |  Road

83
FINAL
Sat, Feb 14 • 2:00 PM ET
Betty Engelstad Sioux Center
View Odds Details →

NORTH DAKOTA

FIGHTING HAWKSUND

15-13  |  Home

66
AI Model Win Probability
BISON
100%
📊
FIGHTING HAWKS
0%
BISON --
FIGHTING HAWKS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
136.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 100%
Under 0 0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-8.0
NORTH DAKOTA
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +8.0 points (North Dakota)
BisonNDSU (-3.5) 0 Fighting HawksUND (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Bison Cover

21.2%

Fighting Hawks Cover

78.8%

+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around UND -8.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (UND)

NDSU By 1-7 points

13.7%

NDSU By 8-14 points

4.8%

UND By 1-7 points

25.3%

UND By 8-14 points

26.2%

AI Model Projected Score
64
NORTH DAKOTA STATE
72
NORTH DAKOTA
Simulated Score
72
NORTH DAKOTA STATE
75
NORTH DAKOTA
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Fighting Hawks Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Fighting Hawks Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Fighting Hawks (+5.5) Loss
Proj Spread: -8.0
D
Sim Fighting Hawks (+0) Loss
Proj Spread: -3.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI u150.5 Win
Proj Total: 136.0
D
Sim u150.5 Win
Proj Total: 147.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Mar 8, 2026 UND @ NDSU 62 - 70
Feb 28, 2026 UND @ NDSU 63 - 96
Feb 14, 2026 NDSU @ UND 83 - 66
Feb 22, 2025 NDSU @ UND 77 - 79
Jan 25, 2025 UND @ NDSU 82 - 87
Key Model Drivers
Steals (L5) +9.5% more
North Dakota: 7.1 vs North Dakota State: 6.5
Assists (L5) +41.0% more
North Dakota State: 13.6 vs North Dakota: 8.0
Turnovers (L5) +28.5% more
North Dakota State: 8.7 vs North Dakota: 6.2
Free Throw % (L5) +8.1%
North Dakota State: 81.0% vs North Dakota: 72.8%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
NDSU Score 64.0 83
UND Score 72.0 66
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 31.0 / 39.1 33.0 / 40.0
Assists 8.0 / 13.6 10.0 / 20.0
Blocks 2.5 / 2.6 2.0 / 2.0
Field Goal % 44.2 / 48.4 43.0 / 56.0
Free Throw % 72.8 / 81.0 70.0 / 76.0
Rebounding 33.7 / 33.5 23.0 / 36.0
Steals 7.1 / 6.5 6.0 / 7.0
Turnovers 6.2 / 8.7 12.0 / 15.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
90%TICKETS10%
77%MONEY23%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
60%TICKETS40%
80%MONEY20%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
70%TICKETS30%
93%MONEY7%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
NDSU Advantage
27-8-0 (77.1%)
Margin: 10.1 ATS +/-: +4.5
UND
18-17-0 (51.4%)
Margin: -0.7 ATS +/-: +1.5
🎯 ATS (Spread)
NDSU
19-14-0 (57.6%)
Margin: 10.1 ATS +/-: +4.5
UND Advantage
21-11-0 (65.6%)
Margin: -0.7 ATS +/-: +1.5
⚖️ Over/Under
NDSU
18-13-2
O: 58.1% / U: 41.9% Total +/-: +2.9
UND
15-16-1
O: 48.4% / U: 51.6% Total +/-: +1.3
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
UND
NDSU
UND
NDSU
ML
44% 15-19
49% 17-18
50% 17-17
59% 20-14
ATS
50% 17-17
54% 19-16
50% 17-17
59% 20-14
TTL
65% 22-12
43% 15-20
100% 34-0
100% 34-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
Contextual Game News
K-State vs Houston: Week 6 Showdown with Big 12 Title Implicatio…
si 5 hours, 55 minutes ago
Rylan Griffen Secures Spot on Texas A&M's 2026-27 Roster After N…
aggieswire 12 hours, 37 minutes ago
CareSource Invitational Turns Tennis Center into Basketball Show…
wcpo 18 hours, 45 minutes ago
Rutgers Men's Basketball Releases Full 2026-27 Schedule with TV …
yahoo 1 day ago
Luke Loucks Opens Up on Recruiting, Offensive Rebounding, and Ro…
si 1 day ago