Home / NCAAB Projections NCAAB / Blue Hose @ Bulldogs PRES @ UNCA

PRESBYTERIAN

BLUE HOSEPRES

12-14  |  Road

58
FINAL
Sat, Feb 14 • 2:00 PM ET
Kimmel Arena
View Odds Details →

UNC ASHEVILLE

BULLDOGSUNCA

12-13  |  Home

57
AI Model Win Probability
BLUE HOSE
0%
📊
BULLDOGS
100%
BLUE HOSE --
BULLDOGS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
124.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 100%
Under 0 0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-6.0
PRESBYTERIAN
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +6.0 points (Presbyterian)
Blue HosePRES (-3.5) 0 BulldogsUNCA (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Blue Hose Cover

72.6%

Bulldogs Cover

27.4%

-30-20-100+10+20+30
Distribution centered around PRES -6.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (PRES)

PRES By 1-7 points

26.8%

PRES By 8-14 points

24.3%

UNCA By 1-7 points

16.9%

UNCA By 8-14 points

6.8%

AI Model Projected Score
65
PRESBYTERIAN
59
UNC ASHEVILLE
Simulated Score
69
PRESBYTERIAN
81
UNC ASHEVILLE
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Blue Hose Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Bulldogs Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI Blue Hose (-4.5) Win
Proj Spread: -6.0
D
Sim Bulldogs (+0) Loss
Proj Spread: -12.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI u136.5 Win
Proj Total: 124.0
D
Sim u136.5 Win
Proj Total: 150.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Feb 14, 2026 PRES @ UNCA 58 - 57
Jan 14, 2026 UNCA @ PRES 70 - 71
Feb 26, 2025 PRES @ UNCA 64 - 59
Jan 11, 2025 UNCA @ PRES 96 - 87
Feb 14, 2024 PRES @ UNCA 69 - 71
Key Model Drivers
Turnovers (L5) +35.4% more
Presbyterian: 14.6 vs UNC Asheville: 9.4
Blocks (L5) +8.6% more
Presbyterian: 5.3 vs UNC Asheville: 4.8
Rebounding (L5) +8.3% more
Presbyterian: 34.9 vs UNC Asheville: 32.0
Steals (L5) +10.9% more
UNC Asheville: 5.1 vs Presbyterian: 4.6
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
PRES Score 65.0 58
UNCA Score 59.0 57
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 37.6 / 27.5 20.0 / 31.0
Assists 10.9 / 11.2 10.0 / 15.0
Blocks 4.8 / 5.3 6.0 / 6.0
Field Goal % 46.6 / 48.0 41.0 / 43.0
Free Throw % 71.8 / 69.2 67.0 / 58.0
Rebounding 32.0 / 34.9 33.0 / 35.0
Steals 5.1 / 4.6 9.0 / 5.0
Turnovers 9.4 / 14.6 10.0 / 13.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
6%TICKETS94%
10%MONEY90%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
18%TICKETS82%
18%MONEY82%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
80%TICKETS20%
94%MONEY6%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
PRES
15-18-0 (45.5%)
Margin: 0.2 ATS +/-: +0.7
UNCA Advantage
15-17-0 (46.9%)
Margin: 0.5 ATS +/-: -0.2
🎯 ATS (Spread)
PRES Advantage
17-13-0 (56.7%)
Margin: 0.2 ATS +/-: +0.7
UNCA
15-14-0 (51.7%)
Margin: 0.5 ATS +/-: -0.2
⚖️ Over/Under
PRES
16-14-0
O: 53.3% / U: 46.7% Total +/-: +0.7
UNCA
15-14-0
O: 51.7% / U: 48.3% Total +/-: -2.8
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
UNCA
PRES
UNCA
PRES
ML
53% 16-14
69% 22-10
63% 19-11
80% 24-6
ATS
57% 17-13
59% 19-13
63% 19-11
80% 24-6
TTL
60% 18-12
59% 19-13
100% 30-0
100% 30-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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