Home / NCAAB Projections NCAAB / Mustangs @ Orange SMU @ SYR

SMU

MUSTANGSSMU

17-7  |  Road

78
FINAL
Sat, Feb 14 • 2:00 PM ET
JMA Wireless Dome
View Odds Details →

SYRACUSE

ORANGESYR

14-11  |  Home

79
AI Model Win Probability
MUSTANGS
100%
📊
ORANGE
0%
MUSTANGS --
ORANGE --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
166.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-24.0
SYRACUSE
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +24.0 points (Syracuse)
MustangsSMU (-3.5) 0 OrangeSYR (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Mustangs Cover

0.8%

Orange Cover

99.2%

+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around SYR -24.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (SYR)

SMU By 1-7 points

0.6%

SMU By 8-14 points

0.1%

SYR By 1-7 points

4.0%

SYR By 8-14 points

12.2%

AI Model Projected Score
71
SMU
95
SYRACUSE
Simulated Score
72
SMU
75
SYRACUSE
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Orange Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Orange Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Orange (+1.5) Win
Proj Spread: -24.0
D
Sim Orange (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -3.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o157.5 Loss
Proj Total: 166.0
D
Sim u157.5 Win
Proj Total: 147.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Mar 10, 2026 SYR @ SMU 69 - 86
Feb 14, 2026 SMU @ SYR 78 - 79
Mar 12, 2025 SYR @ SMU 53 - 73
Mar 4, 2025 SYR @ SMU 75 - 77
Key Model Drivers
Blocks (L5) +84.8% more
Syracuse: 6.9 vs SMU: 3.8
Steals (L5) +26.0% more
Syracuse: 8.0 vs SMU: 6.3
Assists (L5) +31.7% more
SMU: 19.4 vs Syracuse: 13.2
3pt Field Goal % (L5) +14.1%
SMU: 43.7% vs Syracuse: 29.6%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
SMU Score 71.0 78
SYR Score 95.0 79
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 29.6 / 43.7 37.0 / 35.0
Assists 13.2 / 19.4 14.0 / 16.0
Blocks 6.9 / 3.8 8.0 / 2.0
Field Goal % 50.1 / 51.2 45.0 / 43.0
Free Throw % 67.9 / 72.0 78.0 / 76.0
Rebounding 34.8 / 36.7 35.0 / 41.0
Steals 8.0 / 6.3 2.0 / 6.0
Turnovers 11.2 / 11.8 8.0 / 6.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
72%TICKETS28%
69%MONEY31%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
70%TICKETS30%
73%MONEY27%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
65%TICKETS35%
89%MONEY11%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
SMU Advantage
20-14-0 (58.8%)
Margin: 6.1 ATS +/-: +0.4
SYR
15-17-0 (46.9%)
Margin: 0.8 ATS +/-: -1.6
🎯 ATS (Spread)
SMU
14-19-1 (42.4%)
Margin: 6.1 ATS +/-: +0.4
SYR Advantage
14-18-0 (43.8%)
Margin: 0.8 ATS +/-: -1.6
⚖️ Over/Under
SMU
21-12-1
O: 63.6% / U: 36.4% Total +/-: +2.5
SYR
17-14-1
O: 54.8% / U: 45.2% Total +/-: +1.6
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
SYR
SMU
SYR
SMU
ML
78% 25-7
59% 20-14
69% 22-10
73% 24-9
ATS
69% 22-10
62% 21-13
69% 22-10
73% 24-9
TTL
66% 21-11
56% 19-15
100% 32-0
100% 33-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
Contextual Game News
Aiden Tobiason Brings Sharpshooting and Playmaking to Syracuse B…
si 6 hours, 3 minutes ago
Gerry McNamara Vows to Bring Syracuse Basketball Back to Nationa…
espn 1 day ago
SMU's Rise from NCAA Scandal to ACC Contender: A New Sheriff in …
oanow 1 month ago
UB Adds Former Five-Star Guard JJ Starling Amid Eligibility Batt…
wivb 1 month ago
After Life-Altering Heart Procedure, New York Forward Jack Donah…
wnyt 2 months ago