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CALIFORNIA

GOLDEN BEARSCAL

17-8  |  Road

86
FINAL
Sat, Feb 14 • 12:00 PM ET
Conte Forum
View Odds Details →

BOSTON COLLEGE

EAGLESBC

9-15  |  Home

75
AI Model Win Probability
GOLDEN BEARS
0%
📊
EAGLES
100%
GOLDEN BEARS --
EAGLES --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
156.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-20.0
CALIFORNIA
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +20.0 points (California)
Golden BearsCAL (-3.5) 0 EaglesBC (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Golden Bears Cover

97.7%

Eagles Cover

2.3%

-30-20-100+10+20+30
Distribution centered around CAL -20.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (CAL)

CAL By 1-7 points

8.0%

CAL By 8-14 points

18.6%

BC By 1-7 points

1.7%

BC By 8-14 points

0.3%

AI Model Projected Score
88
CALIFORNIA
68
BOSTON COLLEGE
Simulated Score
71
CALIFORNIA
78
BOSTON COLLEGE
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Golden Bears Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Eagles Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI Golden Bears (+3.5) Win
Proj Spread: -20.0
D
Sim Eagles (+0) Loss
Proj Spread: -7.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o140.5 Win
Proj Total: 156.0
D
Sim u140.5 Win
Proj Total: 149.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Feb 14, 2026 CAL @ BC 86 - 75
Mar 1, 2025 BC @ CAL 71 - 82
Dec 21, 2019 BC @ CAL 64 - 60
Key Model Drivers
Assists (L5) +22.9% more
California: 12.5 vs Boston College: 9.6
Turnovers (L5) +22.7% more
California: 13.3 vs Boston College: 10.3
Steals (L5) +16.0% more
California: 5.4 vs Boston College: 4.5
Free Throw % (L5) +13.1%
California: 78.0% vs Boston College: 65.0%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
CAL Score 88.0 86
BC Score 68.0 75
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 27.8 / 38.5 36.0 / 48.0
Assists 9.6 / 12.5 13.0 / 18.0
Blocks 3.3 / 2.2 1.0 / 1.0
Field Goal % 42.7 / 43.4 48.0 / 56.0
Free Throw % 65.0 / 78.0 56.0 / 75.0
Rebounding 32.3 / 35.7 35.0 / 25.0
Steals 4.5 / 5.4 2.0 / 6.0
Turnovers 10.3 / 13.3 12.0 / 8.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
84%TICKETS16%
72%MONEY28%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
66%TICKETS34%
75%MONEY25%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
66%TICKETS34%
44%MONEY56%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
CAL Advantage
22-12-0 (64.7%)
Margin: 4.9 ATS +/-: +1.4
BC
11-20-0 (35.5%)
Margin: -3.3 ATS +/-: -0.3
🎯 ATS (Spread)
CAL Advantage
17-16-0 (51.5%)
Margin: 4.9 ATS +/-: +1.4
BC
15-16-0 (48.4%)
Margin: -3.3 ATS +/-: -0.3
⚖️ Over/Under
CAL
15-18-0
O: 45.5% / U: 54.6% Total +/-: +0.8
BC
12-19-0
O: 38.7% / U: 61.3% Total +/-: -3.7
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
BC
CAL
BC
CAL
ML
61% 19-12
61% 20-13
61% 17-11
77% 24-7
ATS
73% 22-8-1
64% 21-12
61% 17-11
78% 25-7
TTL
61% 19-12
70% 23-10
100% 28-0
100% 32-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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