Home / NCAAB Projections NCAAB / Panthers @ Tar Heels PITT @ UNC

PITTSBURGH

PANTHERSPITT

9-16  |  Road

65
FINAL
Sat, Feb 14 • 2:00 PM ET
Dean E. Smith Center
View Odds Details →

NORTH CAROLINA

TAR HEELSUNC

19-5  |  Home

79
AI Model Win Probability
PANTHERS
100%
📊
TAR HEELS
0%
PANTHERS --
TAR HEELS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
173.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-5.0
NORTH CAROLINA
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +5.0 points (North Carolina)
PanthersPITT (-3.5) 0 Tar HeelsUNC (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Panthers Cover

30.9%

Tar Heels Cover

69.1%

+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around UNC -5.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (UNC)

PITT By 1-7 points

18.6%

PITT By 8-14 points

8.0%

UNC By 1-7 points

27.2%

UNC By 8-14 points

23.0%

AI Model Projected Score
84
PITTSBURGH
89
NORTH CAROLINA
Simulated Score
78
PITTSBURGH
70
NORTH CAROLINA
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Tar Heels Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Panthers Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI Tar Heels (+11.5) Win
Proj Spread: -5.0
D
Sim Panthers (-0) Loss
Proj Spread: -8.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o144.5 Loss
Proj Total: 173.0
D
Sim u144.5 Win
Proj Total: 148.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Feb 14, 2026 PITT @ UNC 65 - 79
Feb 8, 2025 PITT @ UNC 66 - 67
Jan 28, 2025 UNC @ PITT 65 - 73
Mar 15, 2024 PITT @ UNC 65 - 72
Jan 2, 2024 UNC @ PITT 70 - 57
Key Model Drivers
Free Throw % (L5) +19.9%
North Carolina: 77.0% vs Pittsburgh: 57.0%
Assists (L5) +14.5% more
North Carolina: 15.1 vs Pittsburgh: 13.2
Rebounding (L5) +9.6% more
North Carolina: 34.3 vs Pittsburgh: 31.3
3pt Field Goal % (L5) +8.7%
North Carolina: 36.2% vs Pittsburgh: 27.5%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
PITT Score 84.0 65
UNC Score 89.0 79
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 36.2 / 27.5 36.0 / 37.0
Assists 15.1 / 13.2 18.0 / 16.0
Blocks 3.0 / 2.9 1.0 / 2.0
Field Goal % 45.3 / 38.1 47.0 / 47.0
Free Throw % 77.0 / 57.0 82.0 / 75.0
Rebounding 34.3 / 31.3 27.0 / 32.0
Steals 5.3 / 6.9 5.0 / 3.0
Turnovers 8.6 / 12.5 4.0 / 12.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
2%TICKETS98%
11%MONEY89%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
25%TICKETS75%
26%MONEY74%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
64%TICKETS36%
46%MONEY54%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
PITT
13-20-0 (39.4%)
Margin: -1.3 ATS +/-: -0.5
UNC Advantage
24-9-0 (72.7%)
Margin: 8.1 ATS +/-: +0.5
🎯 ATS (Spread)
PITT
17-16-0 (51.5%)
Margin: -1.3 ATS +/-: -0.5
UNC Advantage
19-14-0 (57.6%)
Margin: 8.1 ATS +/-: +0.5
⚖️ Over/Under
PITT
17-15-1
O: 53.1% / U: 46.9% Total +/-: -0.2
UNC
14-19-0
O: 42.4% / U: 57.6% Total +/-: -2.2
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
UNC
PITT
UNC
PITT
ML
76% 25-8
58% 19-14
69% 22-10
45% 15-18
ATS
73% 24-9
64% 21-12
69% 22-10
45% 15-18
TTL
55% 18-15
61% 20-13
100% 32-0
100% 33-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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