Home / NCAAB Projections NCAAB / Red Storm @ Friars SJU @ PROV

ST. JOHN'S

RED STORMSJU

19-5  |  Road

79
FINAL
Sat, Feb 14 • 1:00 PM ET
Amica Mutual Pavilion
View Odds Details →

PROVIDENCE

FRIARSPROV

11-14  |  Home

69
AI Model Win Probability
RED STORM
0%
📊
FRIARS
100%
RED STORM --
FRIARS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
155.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 100%
Under 0 0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-15.0
ST. JOHN'S
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +15.0 points (St. John's)
Red StormSJU (-3.5) 0 FriarsPROV (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Red Storm Cover

93.3%

Friars Cover

6.7%

-30-20-100+10+20+30
Distribution centered around SJU -15.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (SJU)

SJU By 1-7 points

15.3%

SJU By 8-14 points

25.3%

PROV By 1-7 points

4.8%

PROV By 8-14 points

1.1%

AI Model Projected Score
85
ST. JOHN'S
70
PROVIDENCE
Simulated Score
71
ST. JOHN'S
75
PROVIDENCE
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Red Storm Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Friars Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI Red Storm (+7.5) Win
Proj Spread: -15.0
D
Sim Friars (+0) Loss
Proj Spread: -4.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI u168.5 Win
Proj Total: 155.0
D
Sim u168.5 Win
Proj Total: 146.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Mar 12, 2026 PROV @ SJU 72 - 85
Feb 14, 2026 SJU @ PROV 79 - 69
Jan 3, 2026 PROV @ SJU 77 - 71
Feb 1, 2025 PROV @ SJU 66 - 68
Dec 20, 2024 SJU @ PROV 72 - 70
Key Model Drivers
Steals (L5) +44.6% more
St. John's: 6.8 vs Providence: 3.8
Assists (L5) +15.9% more
St. John's: 15.8 vs Providence: 13.3
Turnovers (L5) +61.2% more
Providence: 14.7 vs St. John's: 9.1
3pt Field Goal % (L5) +9.7%
Providence: 38.5% vs St. John's: 28.7%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
SJU Score 85.0 79
PROV Score 70.0 69
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 38.5 / 28.7 22.0 / 29.0
Assists 13.3 / 15.8 8.0 / 13.0
Blocks 3.3 / 3.4 6.0 / 4.0
Field Goal % 50.6 / 44.9 33.0 / 38.0
Free Throw % 76.6 / 70.3 83.0 / 70.0
Rebounding 38.5 / 40.0 49.0 / 41.0
Steals 3.8 / 6.8 3.0 / 11.0
Turnovers 14.7 / 9.1 14.0 / 4.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
96%TICKETS4%
82%MONEY18%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
72%TICKETS28%
54%MONEY46%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
42%TICKETS58%
32%MONEY68%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
SJU Advantage
30-7-0 (81.1%)
Margin: 11.3 ATS +/-: +1.8
PROV
15-18-0 (45.5%)
Margin: 1.3 ATS +/-: +0.1
🎯 ATS (Spread)
SJU Advantage
22-13-1 (62.9%)
Margin: 11.3 ATS +/-: +1.8
PROV
19-14-0 (57.6%)
Margin: 1.3 ATS +/-: +0.1
⚖️ Over/Under
SJU
13-23-0
O: 36.1% / U: 63.9% Total +/-: -3.6
PROV
22-11-0
O: 66.7% / U: 33.3% Total +/-: +8.5
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
PROV
SJU
PROV
SJU
ML
59% 19-13
62% 18-11
67% 20-10
62% 18-11
ATS
50% 16-16
66% 19-10
67% 20-10
62% 18-11
TTL
44% 14-18
59% 17-12
100% 30-0
100% 29-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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