Home / NCAAB Projections NCAAB / Blue Hens @ Bears DEL @ MOST

DELAWARE

BLUE HENSDEL

8-16  |  Road

76
FINAL
Sat, Feb 14 • 3:00 PM ET
Great Southern Bank Arena
View Odds Details →

MISSOURI STATE

BEARSMOST

13-11  |  Home

67
AI Model Win Probability
BLUE HENS
0%
📊
BEARS
100%
BLUE HENS --
BEARS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
123.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 100%
Under 0 0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-13.0
DELAWARE
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +13.0 points (Delaware)
Blue HensDEL (-3.5) 0 BearsMOST (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Blue Hens Cover

90.3%

Bears Cover

9.7%

-30-20-100+10+20+30
Distribution centered around DEL -13.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (DEL)

DEL By 1-7 points

18.6%

DEL By 8-14 points

26.8%

MOST By 1-7 points

6.8%

MOST By 8-14 points

1.7%

AI Model Projected Score
68
DELAWARE
55
MISSOURI STATE
Simulated Score
68
DELAWARE
72
MISSOURI STATE
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Blue Hens Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Bears Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI Blue Hens (-8.5) Win
Proj Spread: -13.0
D
Sim Bears (+0) Loss
Proj Spread: -4.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI u134.5 Loss
Proj Total: 123.0
D
Sim u134.5 Win
Proj Total: 140.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Feb 14, 2026 DEL @ MOST 76 - 67
Dec 29, 2025 MOST @ DEL 61 - 43
Key Model Drivers
Free Throw % (L5) +18.2%
Delaware: 81.9% vs Missouri State: 63.7%
Field Goal % (L5) +4.1%
Delaware: 47.1% vs Missouri State: 43.0%
3pt Field Goal % (L5) +1.6%
Delaware: 36.1% vs Missouri State: 34.5%
Blocks (L5) +117.4% more
Missouri State: 4.4 vs Delaware: 2.0
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
DEL Score 68.0 76
MOST Score 55.0 67
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 34.5 / 36.1 36.0 / 44.0
Assists 12.9 / 11.4 14.0 / 13.0
Blocks 4.4 / 2.0 2.0 / 2.0
Field Goal % 43.0 / 47.1 37.0 / 53.0
Free Throw % 63.7 / 81.9 72.0 / 94.0
Rebounding 37.3 / 31.3 32.0 / 31.0
Steals 8.1 / 6.2 6.0 / 1.0
Turnovers 13.7 / 13.0 7.0 / 8.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
2%TICKETS98%
22%MONEY78%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
25%TICKETS75%
16%MONEY84%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
77%TICKETS23%
86%MONEY14%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
DEL
10-21-0 (32.3%)
Margin: -6.3 ATS +/-: -0.5
MOST Advantage
16-18-0 (47.1%)
Margin: 1.4 ATS +/-: -0.2
🎯 ATS (Spread)
DEL
15-14-1 (51.7%)
Margin: -6.3 ATS +/-: -0.5
MOST Advantage
18-13-0 (58.1%)
Margin: 1.4 ATS +/-: -0.2
⚖️ Over/Under
DEL
15-15-0
O: 50.0% / U: 50.0% Total +/-: +2.0
MOST
19-12-0
O: 61.3% / U: 38.7% Total +/-: +3.2
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
MOST
DEL
MOST
DEL
ML
65% 22-12
45% 14-17
62% 21-13
52% 16-15
ATS
68% 23-11
61% 19-12
62% 21-13
52% 16-15
TTL
44% 15-19
65% 20-11
100% 34-0
100% 31-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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