Home / NCAAB Projections NCAAB / Wildcats @ Cougars KSU @ HOU

KANSAS STATE

WILDCATSKSU

10-14  |  Road

64
FINAL
Sat, Feb 14 • 4:00 PM ET
Fertitta Center
View Odds Details →

HOUSTON

COUGARSHOU

22-2  |  Home

78
AI Model Win Probability
WILDCATS
100%
📊
COUGARS
0%
WILDCATS --
COUGARS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
166.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-38.0
HOUSTON
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +38.0 points (Houston)
WildcatsKSU (-3.5) 0 CougarsHOU (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Wildcats Cover

0.0%

Cougars Cover

100.0%

+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around HOU -38.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (HOU)

KSU By 1-7 points

0.0%

KSU By 8-14 points

0.0%

HOU By 1-7 points

0.1%

HOU By 8-14 points

0.8%

AI Model Projected Score
64
KANSAS STATE
102
HOUSTON
Simulated Score
65
KANSAS STATE
72
HOUSTON
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Cougars Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Cougars Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Cougars (-22.5) Win
Proj Spread: -38.0
D
Sim Cougars (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -7.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o146.5 Loss
Proj Total: 166.0
D
Sim u146.5 Win
Proj Total: 137.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Feb 14, 2026 KSU @ HOU 64 - 78
Jan 11, 2025 HOU @ KSU 87 - 57
Jan 27, 2024 KSU @ HOU 52 - 74
Key Model Drivers
Rebounding (L5) +23.9% more
Houston: 34.9 vs Kansas State: 28.2
Blocks (L5) +11.2% more
Houston: 4.0 vs Kansas State: 3.6
Field Goal % (L5) +3.7%
Houston: 46.7% vs Kansas State: 43.0%
Turnovers (L5) +59.4% more
Kansas State: 13.2 vs Houston: 5.4
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
KSU Score 64.0 64
HOU Score 102.0 78
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 32.8 / 32.4 33.0 / 31.0
Assists 12.7 / 15.1 18.0 / 13.0
Blocks 4.0 / 3.6 5.0 / 3.0
Field Goal % 46.7 / 43.0 41.0 / 35.0
Free Throw % 70.4 / 69.2 77.0 / 64.0
Rebounding 34.9 / 28.2 42.0 / 37.0
Steals 6.6 / 6.3 8.0 / 10.0
Turnovers 5.4 / 13.2 15.0 / 17.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
4%TICKETS96%
7%MONEY93%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
20%TICKETS80%
22%MONEY78%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
45%TICKETS55%
33%MONEY67%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
KSU
12-20-0 (37.5%)
Margin: -2.3 ATS +/-: -2.9
HOU Advantage
30-7-0 (81.1%)
Margin: 14.5 ATS +/-: +0.7
🎯 ATS (Spread)
KSU
12-20-0 (37.5%)
Margin: -2.3 ATS +/-: -2.9
HOU Advantage
18-19-0 (48.7%)
Margin: 14.5 ATS +/-: +0.7
⚖️ Over/Under
KSU
17-15-0
O: 53.1% / U: 46.9% Total +/-: +0.1
HOU
15-22-0
O: 40.5% / U: 59.5% Total +/-: -0.9
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
HOU
KSU
HOU
KSU
ML
70% 26-11
59% 19-13
68% 23-11
69% 22-10
ATS
70% 26-11
62% 20-12
68% 23-11
69% 22-10
TTL
59% 22-15
47% 15-17
100% 34-0
100% 32-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
Contextual Game News
K-State vs Houston: Week 6 Showdown with Big 12 Title Implicatio…
si 7 hours, 25 minutes ago
Rutgers Men's Basketball Releases Full 2026-27 Schedule with TV …
yahoo 1 day, 1 hour ago
Houston Cougars Set for Road Test Against Kansas State in Big 12…
si 1 day, 7 hours ago
Kentucky's AP Poll Exit Exposes Uphill Battle for National Respe…
yahoo 3 days, 1 hour ago
Arizona's Gio Richardson Exits Cincinnati Game After Brief Retur…
headtopics 4 days, 19 hours ago