KANSAS
JAYHAWKSKU
19-5 | Road
56
IOWA STATE
CYCLONESISU
21-3 | Home
74
AI Model Win Probability
JAYHAWKS
0%
CYCLONES
100%
JAYHAWKS
--
CYCLONES
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
145.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
100%
Under 0
0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-17.0
KANSAS
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +17.0 points (Kansas)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
-30-20-100+10+20+30
Distribution centered around KU -17.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (KU)
KU By 1-7 points
12.2%
KU By 8-14 points
23.0%
ISU By 1-7 points
3.3%
ISU By 8-14 points
0.6%
AI Model Projected Score
Kansas
81
KANSAS
Iowa State
64
IOWA STATE
Simulated Score
Kansas
73
KANSAS
Iowa State
78
IOWA STATE
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI
Jayhawks
Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Cyclones
Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI
Jayhawks (-7.5)
Loss
Proj Spread: -17.0
D
Sim
Cyclones (+0)
Win
Proj Spread: -5.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
u148.5
Win
Proj Total: 145.0
D
Sim
u148.5
Win
Proj Total: 151.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Feb 14, 2026
KU @ ISU
56 - 74
Jan 13, 2026
ISU @ KU
63 - 84
Feb 3, 2025
ISU @ KU
52 - 69
Jan 15, 2025
KU @ ISU
57 - 74
Jan 27, 2024
KU @ ISU
75 - 79
Key Model Drivers
Blocks (L5)
+62.3% more
Kansas: 7.0
vs
Iowa State: 2.7
Free Throw % (L5)
+24.7%
Kansas: 78.4%
vs
Iowa State: 53.7%
Assists (L5)
+38.2% more
Iowa State: 19.4
vs
Kansas: 14.0
Turnovers (L5)
+31.0% more
Iowa State: 13.9
vs
Kansas: 10.6
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
KU Score
81.0
56
ISU Score
64.0
74
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal %
34.2 / 30.9
37.0 / 33.0
Assists
19.4 / 14.0
12.0 / 7.0
Blocks
2.7 / 7.0
3.0 / 4.0
Field Goal %
48.4 / 46.9
44.0 / 37.0
Free Throw %
53.7 / 78.4
53.0 / 80.0
Rebounding
35.6 / 38.3
34.0 / 34.0
Steals
7.6 / 5.9
6.0 / 4.0
Turnovers
13.9 / 10.6
6.0 / 13.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
KU
24-11-0
(68.6%)
Margin: 6.1
ATS +/-: +1.3
ISU
Advantage
29-8-0
(78.4%)
Margin: 16.4
ATS +/-: +2.3
🎯 ATS (Spread)
KU
21-14-0
(60.0%)
Margin: 6.1
ATS +/-: +1.3
ISU
Advantage
22-14-1
(61.1%)
Margin: 16.4
ATS +/-: +2.3
⚖️ Over/Under
KU
11-24-0
O: 31.4% / U: 68.6%
Total +/-: -4.1
ISU
16-21-0
O: 43.2% / U: 56.8%
Total +/-: -1.4
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
ISU
KU
ISU
KU
ML
57%
21-16
57%
20-15
76%
26-8
68%
21-10
ATS
62%
23-14
49%
17-18
76%
26-8
68%
21-10
TTL
54%
20-17
60%
21-14
100%
34-0
100%
31-0
Contextual Game News
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