Home / NCAAB Projections NCAAB / Red Flash @ Knights SFPA @ FDU

SAINT FRANCIS

RED FLASHSFPA

6-18  |  Road

59
FINAL
Thu, Feb 12 • 7:00 PM ET
Bogota Savings Bank Center
View Odds Details →

FAIRLEIGH DICKINSON

KNIGHTSFDU

9-16  |  Home

66
AI Model Win Probability
RED FLASH
100%
📊
KNIGHTS
0%
RED FLASH --
KNIGHTS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
116.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 100%
Under 0 0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-12.0
FAIRLEIGH DICKINSON
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +12.0 points (Fairleigh Dickinson)
Red FlashSFPA (-3.5) 0 KnightsFDU (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Red Flash Cover

11.5%

Knights Cover

88.5%

+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around FDU -12.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (FDU)

SFPA By 1-7 points

8.0%

SFPA By 8-14 points

2.2%

FDU By 1-7 points

20.1%

FDU By 8-14 points

27.2%

AI Model Projected Score
52
SAINT FRANCIS
64
FAIRLEIGH DICKINSON
Simulated Score
72
SAINT FRANCIS
78
FAIRLEIGH DICKINSON
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Knights Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Knights Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Knights (-7.5) Win
Proj Spread: -12.0
D
Sim Knights (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -6.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI u144.5 Win
Proj Total: 116.0
D
Sim u144.5 Win
Proj Total: 150.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Feb 12, 2026 SFPA @ FDU 59 - 66
Jan 4, 2026 FDU @ SFPA 82 - 85
Feb 22, 2025 FDU @ SFPA 80 - 85
Jan 12, 2025 SFPA @ FDU 75 - 71
Feb 17, 2024 SFPA @ FDU 74 - 93
Key Model Drivers
Rebounding (L5) +11.6% more
Fairleigh Dickinson: 35.2 vs Saint Francis: 31.5
Free Throw % (L5) +6.8%
Fairleigh Dickinson: 77.1% vs Saint Francis: 70.3%
Blocks (L5) +34.8% more
Saint Francis: 1.4 vs Fairleigh Dickinson: 0.9
Turnovers (L5) +27.8% more
Saint Francis: 13.9 vs Fairleigh Dickinson: 10.1
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
SFPA Score 52.0 59
FDU Score 64.0 66
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 29.3 / 36.1 22.0 / 19.0
Assists 11.2 / 14.9 11.0 / 4.0
Blocks 0.9 / 1.4 3.0 / 0.0
Field Goal % 43.5 / 45.0 52.0 / 32.0
Free Throw % 77.1 / 70.3 57.0 / 70.0
Rebounding 35.2 / 31.5 37.0 / 37.0
Steals 5.9 / 7.4 4.0 / 8.0
Turnovers 10.1 / 13.9 15.0 / 10.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
3%TICKETS97%
14%MONEY86%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
53%TICKETS47%
52%MONEY48%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
60%TICKETS40%
15%MONEY85%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
SFPA
7-24-0 (22.6%)
Margin: -9.5 ATS +/-: -1.7
FDU Advantage
11-21-0 (34.4%)
Margin: -3.0 ATS +/-: -1.6
🎯 ATS (Spread)
SFPA Advantage
13-15-1 (46.4%)
Margin: -9.5 ATS +/-: -1.7
FDU
10-18-1 (35.7%)
Margin: -3.0 ATS +/-: -1.6
⚖️ Over/Under
SFPA
15-14-0
O: 51.7% / U: 48.3% Total +/-: +5.8
FDU
9-20-0
O: 31.0% / U: 69.0% Total +/-: -2.5
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
FDU
SFPA
FDU
SFPA
ML
65% 20-11
68% 21-10
74% 23-8
67% 20-10
ATS
68% 21-10
68% 21-10
74% 23-8
67% 20-10
TTL
58% 18-13
58% 18-13
100% 31-0
100% 30-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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