MILWAUKEE
BUCKSMIL
22-30 | Road
110
OKLAHOMA CITY
THUNDEROKC
42-13 | Home
93
AI Model Win Probability
BUCKS
0%
THUNDER
100%
BUCKS
--
THUNDER
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
215.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
0%
Under 0
100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-17.0
MILWAUKEE
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +17.0 points (Milwaukee)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
-30-20-100+10+20+30
Distribution centered around MIL -17.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (MIL)
MIL By 1-7 points
12.2%
MIL By 8-14 points
23.0%
OKC By 1-7 points
3.3%
OKC By 8-14 points
0.6%
AI Model Projected Score
Milwaukee
116
MILWAUKEE
Oklahoma City
99
OKLAHOMA CITY
Simulated Score
Milwaukee
117
MILWAUKEE
Oklahoma City
122
OKLAHOMA CITY
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI
Bucks
Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Thunder
Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI
Bucks (-12)
Win
Proj Spread: -17.0
D
Sim
Thunder (+0)
Loss
Proj Spread: -5.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o213.0
Loss
Proj Total: 215.0
D
Sim
u213.0
Win
Proj Total: 239.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Feb 12, 2026
MIL @ OKC
110 - 93
Jan 21, 2026
OKC @ MIL
122 - 102
Oct 14, 2025
OKC @ MIL
116 - 112
Mar 16, 2025
OKC @ MIL
121 - 105
Feb 3, 2025
MIL @ OKC
96 - 125
Key Model Drivers
Turnovers (L5)
+18.4% more
Milwaukee: 15.5
vs
Oklahoma City: 12.6
Steals (L5)
+77.1% more
Oklahoma City: 9.1
vs
Milwaukee: 5.2
Assists (L5)
+9.7% more
Oklahoma City: 26.1
vs
Milwaukee: 23.8
Field Goal % (L5)
+2.0%
Oklahoma City: 50.2%
vs
Milwaukee: 48.2%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
MIL Score
116.0
110
OKC Score
99.0
93
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal %
40.0 / 38.2
33.0 / 40.0
Assists
26.1 / 23.8
22.0 / 25.0
Blocks
4.0 / 4.1
6.0 / 6.0
Field Goal %
50.2 / 48.2
37.0 / 46.0
Free Throw %
80.4 / 80.1
80.0 / 71.0
Rebounding
41.9 / 44.1
47.0 / 49.0
Steals
9.1 / 5.2
3.0 / 9.0
Turnovers
12.6 / 15.5
16.0 / 11.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
MIL
32-50-0
(39.0%)
Margin: -6.2
ATS +/-: -3.0
OKC
Advantage
75-22-0
(77.3%)
Margin: 10.5
ATS +/-: +0.4
🎯 ATS (Spread)
MIL
36-46-0
(43.9%)
Margin: -6.2
ATS +/-: -3.0
OKC
Advantage
47-50-0
(48.4%)
Margin: 10.5
ATS +/-: +0.4
⚖️ Over/Under
MIL
39-43-0
O: 47.6% / U: 52.4%
Total +/-: +1.4
OKC
54-43-0
O: 55.7% / U: 44.3%
Total +/-: +0.8
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
OKC
MIL
OKC
MIL
ML
70%
80-34
64%
61-35
48%
46-49
60%
49-32
ATS
73%
83-30-1
68%
65-31
48%
46-49
60%
49-32
TTL
67%
76-38
55%
53-43
100%
95-0
100%
81-0
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