Home / NCAAB Projections NCAAB / Skyhawks @ Cougars STO @ CHST

STONEHILL

SKYHAWKSSTO

9-16  |  Road

55
FINAL
Thu, Feb 12 • 7:00 PM ET
Jones Convocation Center
View Odds Details →

CHICAGO STATE

COUGARSCHST

5-20  |  Home

68
AI Model Win Probability
SKYHAWKS
0%
📊
COUGARS
100%
SKYHAWKS --
COUGARS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
151.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-57.0
STONEHILL
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +57.0 points (Stonehill)
SkyhawksSTO (-3.5) 0 CougarsCHST (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Skyhawks Cover

100.0%

Cougars Cover

0.0%

-30-20-100+10+20+30
Distribution centered around STO -57.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (STO)

STO By 1-7 points

0.0%

STO By 8-14 points

0.0%

CHST By 1-7 points

0.0%

CHST By 8-14 points

0.0%

AI Model Projected Score
104
STONEHILL
47
CHICAGO STATE
Simulated Score
68
STONEHILL
72
CHICAGO STATE
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Skyhawks Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Cougars Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI Skyhawks (+1.5) Loss
Proj Spread: -57.0
D
Sim Cougars (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -4.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o131.5 Loss
Proj Total: 151.0
D
Sim u131.5 Win
Proj Total: 140.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Feb 12, 2026 STO @ CHST 55 - 68
Jan 10, 2026 CHST @ STO 82 - 85
Jan 24, 2025 CHST @ STO 73 - 75
Jan 12, 2025 STO @ CHST 68 - 52
Key Model Drivers
Blocks (L5) +76.3% more
Stonehill: 4.9 vs Chicago State: 1.2
Turnovers (L5) +27.9% more
Stonehill: 12.1 vs Chicago State: 8.8
Rebounding (L5) +9.4% more
Stonehill: 35.3 vs Chicago State: 32.0
Assists (L5) +46.9% more
Chicago State: 11.7 vs Stonehill: 8.0
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
STO Score 104.0 55
CHST Score 47.0 68
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 32.2 / 24.7 40.0 / 36.0
Assists 11.7 / 8.0 15.0 / 15.0
Blocks 1.2 / 4.9 2.0 / 1.0
Field Goal % 42.7 / 37.4 53.0 / 45.0
Free Throw % 76.3 / 76.6 83.0 / 73.0
Rebounding 32.0 / 35.3 27.0 / 20.0
Steals 8.4 / 6.5 9.0 / 2.0
Turnovers 8.8 / 12.1 9.0 / 14.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
64%TICKETS36%
78%MONEY22%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
57%TICKETS43%
52%MONEY48%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
70%TICKETS30%
61%MONEY39%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
STO Advantage
12-21-0 (36.4%)
Margin: -2.2 ATS +/-: +0.5
CHST
7-25-0 (21.9%)
Margin: -10.3 ATS +/-: +0.4
🎯 ATS (Spread)
STO
14-15-2 (48.3%)
Margin: -2.2 ATS +/-: +0.5
CHST Advantage
15-15-1 (50.0%)
Margin: -10.3 ATS +/-: +0.4
⚖️ Over/Under
STO
11-20-0
O: 35.5% / U: 64.5% Total +/-: -4.0
CHST
15-16-0
O: 48.4% / U: 51.6% Total +/-: -0.5
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
CHST
STO
CHST
STO
ML
75% 24-8
45% 15-18
73% 22-8
70% 23-10
ATS
69% 22-10
39% 13-20
73% 22-8
70% 23-10
TTL
44% 14-18
55% 18-15
100% 30-0
100% 33-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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